Posted on Sun, Apr. 10, 2005

Rural victory could hold lesson for Democrats

DAVID A. LIEB

Associated Press


JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. - He was endorsed by Missouri Right to Life and the National Rifle Association - facts he touted proudly in stump speeches and displayed prominently on his campaign Web site.

But Frank Barnitz was not unique in that regard. His opponent in the rural Missouri Senate race received those same anti-abortion and pro-gun endorsements.

What makes Barnitz unusual is that he is a Democrat - and that he won.

Barnitz's victory over Republican Bill Hickle in last week's special election will make him the only rural Democrat in Missouri's 34-member Senate (excluding Sen. Chuck Graham, of the not-so-rural Columbia).

And Barnitz contends his win should provide a blueprint for Democrats, if they are to have any hope of regaining power in the Capitol. When he and two other newly elected lawmakers are sworn into their new offices, Republicans likely will hold a 23-11 Senate majority over Democrats and a 98-65 House majority.

Republicans have won their majorities in recent years partly by capturing rural seats vacated by term-limited Democrats, many of whom had been more socially conservative than city Democrats. Guns and abortion have served as fundamental issues in the Republican victories.

And with the help of some Democrats, Republican legislative majorities in 2003 were able to override Democratic Gov. Bob Holden's vetoes of bills restricting abortions and allowing concealed guns.

Barnitz, a state House member from Lake Spring, joined Republicans in those votes. In fact, he was one of the lead sponsors of the concealed guns legislation.

So Barnitz had solid gun and abortion credentials last week for the rural voters of the 16th Senate District, comprised of Crawford, Dent, Gasconade, Maries, Montgomery, Osage, Phelps and Pulaski counties.

The district is generally considered Republican. Last November, Jay Nixon was the only statewide Democrat to win those eight counties - and he lacked a strong Republican opponent.

Republican President Bush and Gov. Matt Blunt both won about two-thirds of the 16th Senate District's votes. Republican State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, whom Barnitz will succeed in the Senate, won the region with 72 percent of the vote. And even though Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is a native of the district and won statewide, she lost in the 16th Senate District with less than 43 percent of the vote.

"You've got to have the right issues," Barnitz said while explaining his success. "You take the two issues that have divided the parties out of the mix, because I've been a strong supporter of the Second Amendment and I'm a pro-life Democrat. ...

"And you bring back the conversation to those issues that impact Missourians statewide," Barnitz added. "Those issues are education, health care and jobs."

All three are especially hot topics right now. Blunt and GOP legislators are making Medicaid health care cuts that Barnitz and Democrats deride as cruel. Legislators are working to overhaul the school funding formula. And Blunt already has signed two bills restricting people trying to get money for injuries - measures Republicans claim will help create a pro-business climate in Missouri.

Some Democrats say they learned another lesson from Tuesday's special elections - the importance of unity.

Complete but unofficial results show Democratic Rep. Rick Johnson lost by a mere 66 votes to former Republican Rep. Bill Alter in an election for a northern Jefferson County Senate seat. But Democratic Rep. Harold Selby, running as an independent out of frustration over his party's selection of Johnson, gathered nearly as many votes as Johnson and Alter. Another independent candidate, Republican-leaning Zip Rzeppa, was much further behind.

Johnson and state Democratic Party Chairman Roger Wilson contend Johnson would have easily won the race if Selby had not siphoned off Democratic votes. They note the two Democrats - Johnson and Selby - received a combined 57 percent of the vote.

But Selby, whose anti-abortion and pro-gun stance was more closely aligned with Alter and Rzeppa than Johnson, contends his absence likely would have resulted in more votes for the Republicans. He notes that the three candidates who were more strongly opposed to abortion and in support of gun rights received a combined 70 percent of the vote.

From Selby's perspective, Democrats appear to have lost the close race not because he broke their unity, but because they picked the wrong candidate for the district.

"There's been a glass ceiling for us conservative Democrats - that we can't get on the statewide tickets," Selby said. "Hopefully now, the party has looked at this and said, `That is our future, and it's not just in the rural areas, it's in the suburban areas.'"

Wilson indicated the Democratic Party may try to recruit more socially conservative candidates in rural areas.

"Wedge issue litmus tests are over in the Democratic Party," Wilson said. "The biggest factor in our electing Democrats to the House and Senate in this next election is to do an excellent job of matching our candidates to the districts."

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EDITOR'S NOTE: Capitol Correspondent David A. Lieb covers Missouri government and politics for The Associated Press.

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