Concerns Rise About Stability in Burma
http://enews.voanews.com/t?ctl=DA43B1:2F72C9DMystery surrounding recent bombings in Burma is highlighting
uncertainties about ruling junta's control of security situation
Burma's ruler Senior General Than ShweThe mystery surrounding recent
bombings in Burma is highlighting uncertainties about the ruling
junta's control of the security situation. Many regional experts say
the violence may indicate new tensions within the military government.
The May 7 bombings at a trade center and two supermarkets killed at
least 19 people, and injured as many as 150 others. The bombings were
the deadliest breach of Rangoon's generally tight security in the past
few years.
They shocked the city and the country's military leadership, which
appears to be under increasing internal as well as external pressure.
Diplomats in Rangoon in the past few days said there have been no
fresh developments in the case, nor concrete evidence of who was
behind the bombings. Theories range from one of Burma's many
rebellious ethnic minority groups to the government itself, setting
off a bomb to create an excuse for its tough rule.
Garry Rodan is the director of the Asia Research Center at Western
Australia's Murdoch University.
"It does seem to me the obvious question is whether or not this was
something internal to the regime to try to justify its continued hard
line, or whether it's a genuine attempt by opponents of the regime to
create mayhem," Mr. Rodan said.
The Burmese government says the bombings were the work of "terrorists"
who trained in a neighboring country with the assistance of a
"superpower nation" - apparently references to Thailand and the United
States. Both countries dismiss the allegation.
Thai Foreign Ministry Spokesman Sihasak Phuangketkeow says the
allegation by Burma, also known as Myanmar, puzzles his government.
"We're a little bit perplexed by the statement that has been made by
the minister of the Myanmar government, and we believe that, if they
have any information in that regard they should let us know," he said.
One Burmese official has said three ethnic Karen rebels are suspected
of carrying out the attack.
The explosions marked a deadly change in Burma's political climate,
which was already uncertain after the purge of Prime Minister Khin
Nyunt last October.
Khin Nyunt also was chief of military intelligence, and many of his
backers were ousted from the government along with him. Some regional
political analysts say former intelligence officials, angry over the
loss of their privileges, may have been behind the bombings.
Debbie Stothard, coordinator for the rights group, Alternative ASEAN
Network on Burma, says internal political and economic conflicts have
added to the confusion over who was responsible for the bombings.
"It is now emerging that it's not just a case of tensions between
supporters of former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt - who lost money
because of the purge - but also there seems to be tension between
Senior General Than Shwe and General Muang Aye," she said.
Burma's government, the State Peace and Development Council, came to
power during a bloody crackdown against pro-democracy action in 1988.
Senior General Than Shwe and his deputy, General Muang Aye, lead the
government.
In the past, Than Shwe played a balancing role between Khin Nyunt, who
was viewed as something of a moderate, and Muang Aye, a hard-liner.
Burma experts note that two of the bombing targets were partly owned
by Muang Aye's daughter.
Khin Nyunt had negotiated cease-fire agreements with more than a dozen
minority groups that have fought the Rangoon government for decades.
However, some independence minded rebels continue fighting in many
areas of the country.
Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist at Bangkok's
Chulalongkorn University, foresees instability in the short term, as
the leadership strengthens its control.
"The government of Burma has not been able to stabilize the situation
on the borders and, increasingly, in the big cities," he said. "And
that is quite problematic, given the instability that has been taking
place in Burma. Now, it seems like the conflict within the leadership,
as well as conflict with the armed separatist movement, has been
intensifying."
The military government now appears to be struggling on several fronts
to manage its control over Burma.
Adding to the government's troubles is rising international pressure
over plans for Burma to become the chairman of the Association of
South East Asian Nations in 2006. The United States and the European
Union have indicated they might boycott ASEAN meetings, if Burma takes
the helm, without making substantial political reforms.
Aung San Suu Kyi - 2003 photoAmong their concerns are the continued
detention of pro-democracy opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and a
litany of human rights abuses.
Fifteen years ago this week, the National League for Democracy won
national elections, but the military never allowed the party to take
power. Aung San Suu Kyi and many other leaders of the party have spent
most of the years since then in jail, or under house arrest.
Many ASEAN politicians have urged Burma to give up its chance to lead
the group. The May 7 bombings may add pressure on Rangoon to do so
because of concerns about security.