http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/12674636.htm

Kansas City Star
September 18, 2005
COMMENTARY

Small shift may decide big race

STEVE KRASKE

Jim Talent lost the 2000 governor’s race by a single point.
He won a race for the U.S. Senate two years later by … 1 point.
A recent statewide poll showed him and his Democratic rival, Claire McCaskill, tied at 46 percent each in an early trial heat for next year’s U.S. Senate contest.

There’s a trend here. Chances are that the 2006 race will be razor close. Given that, small shifts in the electorate, which Talent and McCaskill may be powerless to control, could shape the race’s outcome.

Talent was in Kansas City on Friday touting new bipartisan legislation he helped pass to create an office within the Justice Department to prosecute Civil Rights-era killings.

That achievement came a few weeks after the St. Louis Metro Sentinel Journal — “The Black Political Voice of St. Louis” — opined that Talent may snare a large share of the minority vote because of his work on sickle cell anemia, meth and small business.

Then Hurricane Katrina moved in. The Bush administration responded with the speed of ketchup to a region heavily populated by African-Americans. Washed away in all the tumult may be Talent’s progress among blacks.

“They’re angry. They’re upset,” state Sen. Yvonne Wilson, a Kansas City Democrat, said about black voters. “It’s going to hurt Republicans pretty badly.”

Not that many African-Americans were going to vote for Talent anyway. But a small tilt in a close race could matter.

On Friday, Talent admitted that the GOP will have a problem “with all voters” if it doesn’t adequately address New Orleans.

McCaskill faces a different concern. Some folks may think we’ve passed the point that her gender will matter in the outcome of a statewide election.

Recent history, and a new Roper poll, suggest otherwise. Remember Harriett Woods, Geri Rothman-Serot and Nancy Farmer?

They all ran for high elective office in Missouri in recent years — and lost.

A Roper poll noted last week that only 19 percent of Americans agree that the nation is now ready to elect a woman president.

Asked how comfortable they were with women in Congress, 79 percent said “very” while an eye-opening 21 percent hedged, most saying “somewhat” and a few saying “not very” or “not at all.”

Down in Houston, Mo., where McCaskill kicked off her campaign recently, flea market operator Don Lockhart volunteered that her womanhood could hurt.

“Rural people are more traditional,” Lockhart explained.

Sure, it may not amount to many votes. Then again, there probably won’t be many votes separating Talent and McCaskill on Election Day.

Former Sen. Jean Carnahan is out with a letter encouraging donations to McCaskill.

Daughter Robin, Missouri’s secretary of state, also has publicly backed her.

Bottom line: The bad blood between McCaskill and the Carnahans, who were not happy that McCaskill challenged former Gov. Bob Holden in last year’s Democratic primary, may be waning.