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Self-supporting Iraqi army still far in the future
By JENNIFER JACOBS
REGISTER STAFF WRITER

October 23, 2005


The sooner Iraqi armed forces are trained and equipped, the sooner U.S. forces can leave Iraq. Analysts say it could be several years before Iraqi troops can be counted upon to operate independently.

Q. What's the combat readiness of the Iraqi troops?

A. Most of the Iraqi troops can't function without coalition troops at their side because of a lack of trained troops, armored protection, firepower and other equipment.

"Every American man and woman in uniform is being put at risk by the fact that you don't have effective Iraqi partners," said military analyst Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. "What everybody needs to understand is you don't get instant armies. It really does take time and patience."

Charles Grassley, Iowa's Republican U.S. senator, said: "My perception is that we're making considerable progress. But not as much progress as we thought that we would make."

Evan Bayh of Indiana, a Democrat and member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said: "Regrettably, the readiness of the Iraqi army is wholly inadequate for the needs. Our own government has said so."

Q. How many Iraqis are in the security force?

A. The Pentagon says there are now 206,200 "trained and equipped" Iraqi men and women in uniform.

"There's so much spin in these numbers," Cordesman said. "A lot of facts get disguised. . . . Total manpower is meaningless. The army is the key force in direct combat."

About 71,800 are police and highway patrolmen not meant to play a serious role against insurgents, Cordesman said. About 35,800 are various Iraqi Ministry of Interior forces. The actual number of defense forces is 98,600, he said, and all but a few are still extremely dependent on U.S. forces.

Q. How many trained and equipped Iraqis are needed?

A. The goal is 325,000, Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Barry Venable said. "Is that the force that enables us to then turn over security to that country? We don't know," Venable said. "There is no pat answer to the question."

Q. Do the Iraqi troops have the equipment they need?

A. Although the Pentagon doesn't publicize details, the Iraqi army is, in general, short of armored vehicles, artillery, high-powered mortars, rockets, helicopters and materials needed to run a base, analysts said.

"I think everybody would agree they're under-equipped," Cordesman said.

The Pentagon's Venable said: "There is a recognized need that there is still a ways to go in increasing their capabilities. Yeah, they've got a few pickup trucks — it's better than walking. Yeah, it would be nice if they all had Bradleys. We're not there yet."

Two mechanized divisions are being formed, Venable said. The intention is to equip the other battalions well enough to do "basic tasks."

Seth Jones, a political scientist for RAND Corp. who has traveled to Iraq and Afghanistan several times to study counterinsurgency efforts, said that, aside from a need for armored Humvees, the Iraqi troops need training. "It's the smaller stuff - the winning hearts and minds - that's really critical, not big weapons and fighter jets to drop bombs," he said.

Q. When will the Iraqi troops be ready to defend their own country?

A. Not for years, analysts said. Maybe five. Maybe seven.

A top U.S. general, George Casey, said in July that the United States could begin withdrawing some troops as early as next spring, depending upon progress in the political and security environments.

Jones said the United States may reduce its force from the current 156,000 to maybe 130,000 or 120,000, but it likely won't go lower than that during the next year.

"I cannot imagine that anybody has any real timelines for this," he said. "They usually only plan about a year in advance for troop movement and withdrawal. I've seen tentative plans for the next couple of years, but everything depends on how things pan out on the ground, and things could change pretty rapidly on the ground."

Jones added, "Fifty years of history tells us that a successful counterinsurgency effort takes about nine years. We're 21/2 years in. We're still looking at a really long fight."

Q. Is progress being made?

A. Three weeks ago, Casey, the general who oversees U.S. forces in Iraq, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the exact details of Iraqi combat readiness are classified as secret but that only one battalion out of 86 active battalions could operate entirely on its own.

Just a few months earlier, three battalions had been qualified to fight independently. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said the number changed because the military raised the standard for readiness.

Cordesman said there has been "significant progress" since June of last year, when there was only one active battalion in the entire army, Cordesman said.

In March of this year, there were 21 combat-capable battalions. Now there are at least 36, he said.

It's a daunting task to build an army from scratch, recruiting Iraqis who reflect a mix of religions and ethnicities and geographical areas, while excluding security forces from Saddam Hussein's regime and militiamen bent on aggression and oppression, analysts said.

There was no serious effort to strengthen Iraqi forces during the first year of U.S. efforts, Cordesman said. The full flow of money and equipment didn't hit until autumn a year ago. And it's going to be mid- to late 2006 before significant deliveries of light armor and heavier weapons are made, he said.

Q. Who will pay for the equipment the Iraqi troops need?

A. The United States, Grassley said. "But I don't mean to imply their equipment needs to be just like ours," he said. When U.S. forces withdraw, it's possible some equipment could be left behind. "That's my opinion. We did the same thing after the Persian Gulf War."

"They'll ultimately have to get it from us," Bayh said. "Following the election of a permanent government, perhaps the international community would be willing to take this on."