QUOTE
Conservatives May Sit Out N.J. Gov Race
By ANGELA DELLI SANTI, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 18 minutes ago
TRENTON, N.J. - Conservative Republican Dave Pawson agrees with GOP candidate Doug Forrester on most issues in the New Jersey governor's race. But when Pawson goes into the voting booth next Tuesday, he won't pull the lever for Forrester — or for the other guy, either.
Conservative Republican Dave Pawson agrees with GOP candidate Doug Forrester on most issues in the New Jersey governor's race. But when Pawson goes into the voting booth next Tuesday, he won't pull the lever for Forrester — or for the other guy, either.
Forrester's increasingly vocal support of abortion rights in his campaign against liberal Democratic Sen. Jon Corzine (news, bio, voting record) has so alienated Republican conservatives that they are threatening to withhold their votes on Election Day.
"People like myself will not click Corzine or Forrester," said Pawson, a 54-year-old public school teacher. "They'll vote for the Assembly candidates and their local races but skip the governor's race."
Whether that is likely to make a difference is a matter of debate. But Forrester's willingness to write off the right wing reflects a political reality in New Jersey: At a time when the national electorate seems increasingly polarized over abortion, New Jersey is a largely centrist state, and its voters strongly support abortion rights.
"Among the independents, who he needs, the pro-choice issue is an important one," said Ingrid Reed, director of the Eagleton New Jersey Project, a political research institute at Rutgers University. "What you're seeing with Forrester is trying to expand his base in the middle."
Democrats outnumber Republicans about 5-4 in New Jersey, but there are over 2.7 million unaffiliated voters — more than the number of registered members of both parties combined — and contests are fought over the political middle. The two most recent Republican governors, Tom Kean and Christie Whitman, supported abortion rights and held centrist views on most other social issues.
A Star Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll taken in January 2004 found that four out of five New Jerseyans believe that abortion should be legally available, and 28 percent say it should be legal under any circumstances.
"The only successful formula for a New Jersey Republican is to run a moderate campaign like Kean and Whitman," said Joseph Marbach, chairman of political science at Seton Hall University.
Both Corzine and Forrester are rich men who made their fortunes in the business world and have pledged to bring down New Jersey's property taxes, which are the highest in the country.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Corzine, 58, widening his lead to 12 points over Forrester, 52, in a race that has already broken spending records. The candidates have spent a combined $60 million as of Oct. 25, the most ever on a New Jersey gubernatorial campaign.
The rift between the moderate Forrester and conservative Republicans intensified after Kean, the popular former governor and head of the 9/11 commission, made a TV commercial declaring that his friend Forrester "supports a woman's right to choose."
Last week, Forrester accepted an endorsement from the Republican Majority for Choice, a Washington group that backs moderates. This week, he issued a statement expressing concern over Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito's conservative views on abortion.
The conservatives went crazy.
"I'm disillusioned and disappointed about the message that's beginning to come out of the Forrester campaign," said Steve Lonegan, the most conservative of the seven candidates in the GOP primary for governor. "He might as well have flipped the bird to conservatives with that commercial."
Pawson said that when he heard the Kean ad while driving to work, his first thought was, "Well, that's the end of the Forrester campaign." Conservatives who had signed up to man phone banks, hand out literature and put up lawn signs for Forrester suddenly "unvolunteered," he said.
As for whether Forrester's gamble will pay off, Marbach warned that New Jersey's conservatives are numerous enough to sink his campaign if they abandon him, while Reed said some conservatives will pull the lever for the Republican, however reluctantly, because they view him as the less offensive alternative.
Marie Tasy, executive director of New Jersey Right to Life, said don't be so sure.
"This is the group who sunk him last time," she said, referring to Forrester's unsuccessful run for the Senate against Democrat Frank Lautenberg in 2002. "The people who might have voted for him and held their noses stayed home."
By ANGELA DELLI SANTI, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 18 minutes ago
TRENTON, N.J. - Conservative Republican Dave Pawson agrees with GOP candidate Doug Forrester on most issues in the New Jersey governor's race. But when Pawson goes into the voting booth next Tuesday, he won't pull the lever for Forrester — or for the other guy, either.
Conservative Republican Dave Pawson agrees with GOP candidate Doug Forrester on most issues in the New Jersey governor's race. But when Pawson goes into the voting booth next Tuesday, he won't pull the lever for Forrester — or for the other guy, either.
Forrester's increasingly vocal support of abortion rights in his campaign against liberal Democratic Sen. Jon Corzine (news, bio, voting record) has so alienated Republican conservatives that they are threatening to withhold their votes on Election Day.
"People like myself will not click Corzine or Forrester," said Pawson, a 54-year-old public school teacher. "They'll vote for the Assembly candidates and their local races but skip the governor's race."
Whether that is likely to make a difference is a matter of debate. But Forrester's willingness to write off the right wing reflects a political reality in New Jersey: At a time when the national electorate seems increasingly polarized over abortion, New Jersey is a largely centrist state, and its voters strongly support abortion rights.
"Among the independents, who he needs, the pro-choice issue is an important one," said Ingrid Reed, director of the Eagleton New Jersey Project, a political research institute at Rutgers University. "What you're seeing with Forrester is trying to expand his base in the middle."
Democrats outnumber Republicans about 5-4 in New Jersey, but there are over 2.7 million unaffiliated voters — more than the number of registered members of both parties combined — and contests are fought over the political middle. The two most recent Republican governors, Tom Kean and Christie Whitman, supported abortion rights and held centrist views on most other social issues.
A Star Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll taken in January 2004 found that four out of five New Jerseyans believe that abortion should be legally available, and 28 percent say it should be legal under any circumstances.
"The only successful formula for a New Jersey Republican is to run a moderate campaign like Kean and Whitman," said Joseph Marbach, chairman of political science at Seton Hall University.
Both Corzine and Forrester are rich men who made their fortunes in the business world and have pledged to bring down New Jersey's property taxes, which are the highest in the country.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Corzine, 58, widening his lead to 12 points over Forrester, 52, in a race that has already broken spending records. The candidates have spent a combined $60 million as of Oct. 25, the most ever on a New Jersey gubernatorial campaign.
The rift between the moderate Forrester and conservative Republicans intensified after Kean, the popular former governor and head of the 9/11 commission, made a TV commercial declaring that his friend Forrester "supports a woman's right to choose."
Last week, Forrester accepted an endorsement from the Republican Majority for Choice, a Washington group that backs moderates. This week, he issued a statement expressing concern over Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito's conservative views on abortion.
The conservatives went crazy.
"I'm disillusioned and disappointed about the message that's beginning to come out of the Forrester campaign," said Steve Lonegan, the most conservative of the seven candidates in the GOP primary for governor. "He might as well have flipped the bird to conservatives with that commercial."
Pawson said that when he heard the Kean ad while driving to work, his first thought was, "Well, that's the end of the Forrester campaign." Conservatives who had signed up to man phone banks, hand out literature and put up lawn signs for Forrester suddenly "unvolunteered," he said.
As for whether Forrester's gamble will pay off, Marbach warned that New Jersey's conservatives are numerous enough to sink his campaign if they abandon him, while Reed said some conservatives will pull the lever for the Republican, however reluctantly, because they view him as the less offensive alternative.
Marie Tasy, executive director of New Jersey Right to Life, said don't be so sure.
"This is the group who sunk him last time," she said, referring to Forrester's unsuccessful run for the Senate against Democrat Frank Lautenberg in 2002. "The people who might have voted for him and held their noses stayed home."