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Snuffysmith
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...tem/itemID/9710

Libby Investigation Important for Most Americans

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Many adults in the United States believe the inquiry into the alleged leak of an undercover Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officer’s identity is significant, according to a poll by CBS News. 86 per cent of respondents think the matter is of great or some importance to the nation.

On Oct. 28, special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald announced that vice-president Dick Cheney’s chief of staff Lewis Libby had been indicted on one count of obstruction of justice, two counts of perjury, and two counts of making false statements. According to the indictment, Libby lied to Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agents and a federal grand jury about his conversations regarding the identity of CIA operative Valerie Plame with both Time reporter Matthew Cooper and Tim Russert of NBC News.

Plame is married to former ambassador Joseph Wilson, who in July 2003 wrote an op-ed in the New York Times that severely criticized the Bush administration for its claim that Saddam Hussein’s regime had sought to purchase uranium from Niger.

On Nov. 3, Libby pleaded not guilty to all charges. If convicted, Libby could be sentenced to 30 years in jail, and fined $1.25 million U.S. 54 per cent of respondents say they do not know enough to say if the charges against Libby are true.

Yesterday in Argentina, U.S. president George W. Bush referred to the situation, saying, "We’re going through a very serious investigation. And I have told you before that I’m not going to discuss the investigation until it’s completed. (...) My obligation is to set an agenda, and I’ve done that."

Polling Data

A special prosecutor has been investigating whether a crime was committed when a CIA officer’s identity was revealed to reporters. How important do you think the matter is to the nation?

Great importance
51%

Some importance
35%

Very little importance
12%

No importance
--

No opinion
2%



Lewis "Scooter" Libby, vice-president Dick Cheney’s former Chief of Staff, has been indicted on five felony charges of lying to investigators and misleading the grand jury in the CIA leak case. From what you’ve heard or read, do you think the charges are probably true, or probably not true, or don’t you know enough about it yet to say?

Probably true
39%

Probably not true
4%

Don’t know enough yet
54%

No opinion
3%



Source: CBS News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 936 American adults, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, 2005. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Other poll highlights: 51 per cent say investigation mostly politics, 43 per cent call it a serious matter. 61 per cent of respondents believe Libby’s situation calls for criminal prosecution, 36 per cent say the same about White House chief of staff Karl Rove.



• Complete Poll (PDF)
Snuffysmith
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/9718I

raq Conflict Not Worth Fighting, Say Americans

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Many adults in the United States believe their federal administration should not have launched the coalition effort, according to a poll by CBS News. 64 per cent of respondents believe the result of the war with Iraq was not worth the loss of American life and other costs.

The coalition effort against Saddam Hussein’s regime was launched in March 2003. At least 2,037 American soldiers have died during the military operation, and more than 15,300 troops have been injured.

In his Oct. 29 radio address, U.S. president George W. Bush ruled out any changes to current policies, saying, "The best way to honour the sacrifice of our fallen troops is to complete the mission and win the war on terror." 50 per cent of respondents believe U.S. troops leave Iraq as soon as possible, even if Iraq is not completely stable, while 43 per cent think the soldiers should stay in Iraq.

Yesterday in Argentina, Bush discussed his strategy, saying, "My job is to set clear goals and deal with the problems we face. Now, look, we’ve got an ongoing war on terror. And my administration is working with friends and allies to find these terrorists and bring them to justice before they strike us again. We’re fighting the terrorists in Iraq." 62 per cent of respondents disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq.

Polling Data

Do you think the result of the war with Iraq was worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq, or not?

Nov. 2005
Oct. 2005
Sept. 2005

Worth it
31%
32%
33%

Not worth it
64%
64%
61%

Don’t know
5%
5%
6%



Should the United States troops stay in Iraq as long as it takes to make sure Iraq is a stable democracy, even if it takes a long time, or should U.S. troops leave Iraq as soon as possible, even if Iraq is not completely stable?

Nov. 2005
Oct. 2005

Stay as long as it takes
43%
36%

Leave as soon as possible
50%
59%

Don’t know / No answer
7%
5%



Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

Nov. 2005
Oct. 2005
Sept. 2005

Approve
32%
32%
36%

Disapprove
62%
64%
59%

No opinion
6%
4%
5%



Source: CBS News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 936 American adults, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, 2005. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Other poll highlights: 57 per cent say things going badly for U.S. in Iraq, 48 per cent say Iraq will never become a democracy, 38 per cent say the Bush administration hid "important elements" when discussing the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.



• Complete Poll (PDF)
Snuffysmith
http://rawstory.com/news/2005/Zogby_Americ...hment_1104.html


Zogby poll: Majority of likely voters support considering impeachment
over Iraq, 51-45 percent
John Byrne and Miriam Raftery

Impeachment support is greater among all adults than likely voters

A new poll of likely voters by Zogby International has found that a majority of Americans support Congress considering the impeachment of President Bush if he “did not tell the truth about his reasons for going to war with Iraq,” RAW STORY has learned.

The poll, to be released this afternoon, finds that 51 percent of likely voters want Congress to eye impeachment, while 45 percent do not. It was commissioned by AfterDowningStreet.org, a coalition of progressive groups seeking a Congressional investigation of the events leading up to war in Iraq.

Among all adults surveyed, the numbers were higher: 53 percent supported impeachment, while 42 percent did not. The poll, which has a +/- 2.9% margin of error, interviewed 1,200 U.S. adults from Oct. 29 through Nov. 2.

Not surprisingly, Democrats supported the consideration of impeachment by a broad margin (76 percent) while Republicans opposed (66 percent). However, 29 percent of Republicans told Zogby pollsters that they supported Congress examining impeachment over Iraq.

"These results are stunning," AfterDowningStreet.org co-founder Bob Fertik said in a statement. "A clear majority of Americans now supports President Bush's impeachment if he lied about the war. This should send shock waves through the White House - and a wake-up call to Democrats and Republicans in Congress, who have sole power under the Constitution to impeach President Bush."

Whites were more likely to oppose impeachment proceedings, while Hispanics and African Americans supported them. Asians who took the poll were more likely to oppose impeachment, though only 21 answered questions about their views.

Also notable: 46 percent of those who considered themselves "born again" said they would support Congress considering impeachment.

The House of Representatives has the sole authority to impeach a president. Democrats, however, have not touched the issue, and they do not constitute a majority in the chamber.

Zogby last polled likely voters on impeachment in June. At that time, 42 percent supported considering impeachment, while 50 percent opposed.

Another poll of American adults conducted in early October by Ipsos, the agency used by the Associated Press, found that 50 percent supported Congress examining the issue, while 42 percent opposed.

RAW STORY placed calls to some of the more liberal members of the House, among them Reps. Maxine Waters (D-CA), Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), Bob Filner (D-CA), John Conyers (D-MI) and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). None of the offices returned calls for comment.

Fertik, who also runs Democrats.com, has also set up ImpeachPAC, a political action committee aimed at supporting Democrats who say they will seek impeachment.

The following are from Zogby's current poll of likely voters.

go to link to see chart


Correction: The first edition of this article incorrectly stated the percentage of Americans who oppose an impeachment inquiry in the text of the article, though it was correct in the headline. The second version of this article also adds a second round of questions broken down by all adults.


Originally published on Friday November 4, 2005
Last Updated: 11/4/3905
Snuffysmith
http://iht.com/articles/2005/11/04/news/rove.php

Rove inquiry narrows focus
By David Johnston and Richard W. Stevenson The New York Times

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2005


WASHINGTON The prosecutor in the CIA leak case has narrowed his investigation of Karl Rove, the senior White House adviser, to whether Rove tried to conceal from the grand jury a conversation with a Time magazine reporter in the week before an intelligence officer's identity was made public more than two years ago, according to lawyers in the case.

The special counsel, Patrick Fitzgerald, has centered on what are believed to be his final inquiries on whether Rove was fully forthcoming about the belated discovery of an internal e-mail message that confirmed his conversation with the Time reporter, Matthew Cooper, to whom Rove had mentioned the CIA officer.

Fitzgerald no longer seems to be actively examining some of the more incendiary questions involving Rove. At one point, he explored whether Rove misrepresented his role in the leak case to President George W. Bush - an issue that led to discussions between Fitzgerald and James Sharp, a lawyer for Bush, said an associate of Rove.

Rove's lawyer, Robert Luskin, declined on Thursday to discuss his client's legal status, but referred to a statement issued last week in which he expressed confidence that Fitzgerald would conclude that Rove had done nothing wrong.

Fitzgerald's spokesman, Randall Samborn, declined to discuss Rove's legal status. If nothing else, the uncertainty that continues to surround Rove's legal case has led to intense speculation about his standing within the White House. People with close ties to Bush said there had been no discussion about Rove stepping down if he was not indicted. They said that any serious consideration of how he should address his role in the case had been put off until the inquiry into Rove was completed.
Snuffysmith
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cf...jectID=10353731

Four charged with stealing US military secrets

05.11.05 12.00pm


LOS ANGELES - An engineer at a California defence contractor and three others who authorities say are "foreign intelligence officers" for China have been arrested and charged with stealing US military secrets, according to court documents.

Federal prosecutors declined to comment on the arrest a week earlier of the two married couples, who were taken into custody at Los Angeles International Airport as they prepared to board a late-night flight for China.

An FBI affidavit unsealed this week showed Chi Mak and his wife, Rebecca Laiwah Chiu, were charged in US District Court along with Chi's brother, Tai Wang Mak and Tai's wife, Fuk Heung Li, with theft of government property, conspiracy and transportation of stolen goods.

Chi, an engineer at California-based defence contractor Power Paragon, and his wife are naturalised US citizens originally from China. Tai and his wife are legal US residents who emigrated from China in 2001.

Although none of the defendants was charged with spying, FBI Special Agent James Gaylord wrote in the affidavit he believed them to be foreign intelligence officers involved in stealing US military secrets and delivering them to the Chinese government.

Attorneys for the defendants could not immediately be reached for comment.

Chi, the lead engineer on a classified research project involving quiet propulsion systems - known as Quiet Electric Drive - for US Navy warships, is accused of taking sensitive information about the project, copying it onto CDs and delivering them to his brother, Tai.

Tai, according to the affidavit, is accused of encrypting the information and making plans to take it to China with his wife. Chiu is accused of assisting her husband in copying the material.

"Based on my experience and training, I believe the targets are foreign intelligence operatives," Gaylord wrote in asking a judge to approve a special nighttime search of their residences.

"The arrests of Tai and Fuk must take place at LAX before the targets departure ... to ensure that the disks containing the government property are retrieved before they can leave the country," he wrote.

Gaylord said in the affidavit that evidence against the four defendants included torn-up documents recovered from the trash at Chi's residence that included lists of sought military technologies as well as intercepted phone calls and e-mails.

- REUTERS
Snuffysmith
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20051104/pl_af...05546&printer=1


Democrats to avoid rushed report on pre-Iraq intelligence Fri Nov 4, 3:55 PM ET

Opposition Democrats said they would not rush to deliver a report on possible White House manipulations of intelligence during the runup to the Iraq war.

"It will be thorough," said the number-two of the Senate intelligence committee, John Rockefeller.

"Also it's going to be prompt," he said.

"These are very, very complicated investigations."

The matter reached a boiling point in the Senate on Tuesday. Democrats in the Senate used a rare parliamentary maneuver to force lawmakers to discuss the issue behind closed doors, infuriating Republicans.

The debate came on the heels of an indictment of Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, who quickly resigned.

Democrats said the closed-door debate was necessary to allow a full discussion on alleged manipulation of prewar intelligence by President George W. Bush's administration.

Libby was accused as part of a federal investigation into who in the administration revealed the name of a CIA agent whose husband is a critic of Bush administration use of prewar intelligence, and who claims the revelation of his wife's name was retribution for his outspokenness.

After Tuesday's two-hour secret Senate session, Democrats and Republicans decided that a six-person task force will issue a "phase one" report by November 14 on how best to complete the investigation.

"We cannot allow the long delay in our proceeding forward with phase two to compromise the quality of that investigation. Each of us will repeat that, because we feel really strongly about it," Rockefeller said.

The Republican chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, Pat Roberts, late Tuesday blamed procrastination by the Democrats for holding up the report on how intelligence information was used prior to the invasion of Iraq, planned since February 2004.

He said that he hoped to finish it by next week.




Copyright © 2005 Agence France Presse. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AFP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of Agence France Presse.


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Snuffysmith
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...&type=printable

Chalabi Returns to Court Washington Elite
- By BARRY SCHWEID, AP Diplomatic Writer
Friday, November 4, 2005


(11-04) 13:09 PST WASHINGTON, (AP) --

Face-to-face meetings with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and probably other senior Bush administration officials await Ahmed Chalabi as the Iraqi deputy prime minister pursues political rehabilitation in Washington.


While some Senate Democrats want to probe the role of the Iraq National Congress, an exile group headed by Chalabi, in drumming up support for the war that deposed Saddam Hussein, he is about to receive high-profile attention from the Bush administration.


Chalabi, who begins his eight-day visit on Tuesday, is due to see Rice on Wednesday and make a speech that day at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank that provides personnel and considerable support to the administration.


He expects to see other senior U.S. officials as well, but he has not yet nailed down a meeting with Vice President Dick Cheney, another goal as Chalabi maneuvers to become Iraq's next prime minister after elections in December.


Chalabi is linked with ultimately unfounded claims by President Bush and his top aides that Saddam had amassed hidden arsenals of weapons of mass destruction. The claim helped the president gain support from Congress and much of the American public for the war in 2003.


A former banker and MIT graduate, Chalabi has been a controversial figure on several fronts, accused sometimes of being an Iranian agent.


Patrick Clawson, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, dismissed the allegation.


"He is not an agent, but he wants to work with Iran to the extent it is compatible with Iraq's best interest," Clawson said in an interview.


"Mr. Chalabi is convinced that good relations with Iran are in Iraq's best interest, and that the United States would benefit," said Clawson, author of a new book titled "Eternal Iran."


"I think he is mistaken in his optimism," Clawson said.


The Bush administration often appeared to be of two minds about Chalabi. Pentagon officials seemed to hold him in higher esteem than officials at the State Department.


Still, Rice, whose schedule is packed with travel abroad, found time on her schedule for a meeting the day before she departs on a 10-day trip to the Middle East and Asia.


URL: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file.../w130903S85.DTL
Snuffysmith
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1104/dailyUpdate.html

posted November 4, 2005 at 11:00 a.m.

Italy denies faking Niger documents

Italian secret service names 'occasional spy' as source of forged documents.

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

Italy's chief of military intelligence Thursday named Rocco Martino, an "occasional spy," as the source of the forged documents that said Saddam Hussein was trying to buy uranium from Niger. The New York Times reports that Mr. Martino has "long been suspected" of being the person responsible for "peddling" the documents on the Iraq-Niger connection that were ultimately proved to be false.
In a day of extraordinary developments, the Times says that Gen. Nicolo Pollari told a closed-door meeting of a key Italian parliamentary committee on secret services that Rocco Martino was "a former intelligence agency informer who had been kicked out of the agency." Gen. Pollari did not name Martino as the forger.

News reports have quoted [Martino] as saying he obtained [the documents] through a contact at the Niger Embassy [in Rome]. But this was the first time his role was formally disclosed by the intelligence agency. Neither Mr. Martino nor his lawyer, Giuseppe Placidi, [was] available for comment.
Pollari also told the Italian committee that no Italian intelligence officers were involved in the forging or distribution of the documents. According to a senior Italian lawmaker, Pollari also told the group that Martino had told a prosecutor in Rome that he was working for the French intelligence service, not Sismi (Italian intelligence). A French intelligence spokesman in Paris would not tell the Times if Martino was a French intelligence agent, but called Pollari's comments "scandalous."




11/03/05

Blair backs down on terror legislation

11/02/05

Indonesia will cut Bali bomber sentences

11/01/05

US inspector general for Iraq paints 'grim' picture of reconstruction effort



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Newsday reports that La Repubblica, whose original series of articles a week ago alleged that Italian intelligence had been involved with forging the documents, has also named Martino as the originator of the documents. The newspaper reported that Martino had "produced the forgeries from letterhead and stamps he purloined from Niger's embassy in Rome in 2000."

According to La Repubblica, SISMI's earliest attempts to disseminate the false documents occurred in late 2001, when forgeries personally corroborated by Pollari were sent to the CIA station chief in Rome after the Sept. 11 attacks." SISMI purported the truth of documents it knew to be false," prompting the CIA to dispatch former US Ambassador Joseph Wilson to Niger in 2002 on a fact-finding mission that came up empty, La Repubblica reported.
Having failed to convince the CIA, the report said, Pollari took the phony intelligence straight to the Bush administration, arranging a Washington briefing with Stephen Hadley, then deputy national security adviser. Hadley confirmed Wednesday that the meeting had occurred but denied getting fake documents from Pollari on Hussein's alleged uranium purchase. Hadley said he consulted with staff members to "refresh my memory" before reaching this conclusion.

Former and current US intelligence officials have said that after the 9/11 attacks, Italian intelligence did send reports to the US that Iraq was trying to buy uranium from Niger that could be used for nuclear weapons. Sismi confirmed that it had sent information about Iraq's attempts to buy Niger's uranium as early as the 1990's "but it never said the information was credible."
The Associated Press reports that commission member Sen. Massimo Brutti created a sensation when he emerged from the meeting and told reporters that the Italian secret service had warned the US in January of 2003 that the documents were forged. But he later called AP to "retract and clarify" his statement.

Brutti said what he meant to say was that the commission was told that a Sismi official, contacted by the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna about the dossier, told the UN agency that "those documents didn't come from Sismi, they weren't produced nor supplied by Sismi."
"Our [intelligence services] were not involved," Brutti said the briefing was told.

President Bush included the allegation about Iraq seeking the uranium in his January 2003 State of the Union address, accusing Iraq of pursuing banned weapons of mass destruction programs.
Also Thursday, The New York Times reported that the FBI confirmed a report in an Italian newspaper that the Italian government had received a letter from Robert Mueller, the director of the FBI, in late July, expressing the highest appreciation for Italy for its cooperation with the investigation.

The letter added that the cooperation had given the FBI proof that the documents were produced and disseminated by one or more people likely for monetary gain, and ruled out the possibility that the Italian service had intended to influence American policy.
Snuffysmith
http://www.sftt.org/main.cfm?actionId=glob...=30&htmlId=4234

10.31.2005

On War #137: True Confessions


William S. Lind

On October 19, 2005, the American Secretary of State, aka the Tea Lady, did something extraordinary for the Bush administration. She told the truth. According to the October 20 Washington Times, in testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Miss Rice said that it was always the Bush administration's intent to redesign the Middle East after the September 11 attacks, which exposed a "deep malignancy growing" in the region, and that the Iraq was part of that plan.

Well. There we have it. It's not official: Saddam's eternally elusive Weapons of Mass Destruction were just eyewash. The decision to invade Iraq came first, and the various contrived justifications came after. Thos Iraqi WMDs were as real as Polish attacks on Germany in 1939, and as cynical. The cynicism is, if anything, ever more brazen: Herr Ribbentrop never testified to the Reichstag that "Polish aggression" was just a set-up, even if everyone knew.

Does it matter? To the American press and people, apparently not. Miss Rice's official confirmation of everyone's suspicions got virtually no coverage. After all, the NFL season has started.

But in other respects, I think it does matter. It matters, first, because it reveals this administration's utter cynicism, a cynicism born of the neo-cons, who seldom met a lie they didn't like. In effect, Miss Rice testified, "Yea, we lied. So what?"

Well, beyond 2000 dead and 15,000 wounded, so cavalier an attitude toward the truth suggests the lies have probably continued. As they have: the administration routinely engages in (illegal) domestic propaganda, puffing anything it can call a "success" in Iraq while classifying or otherwise burying the bad news. The latest example is the spin on the Iraqi constitutional referendum. The Bushies are hailing it an "another victory of democracy," when in fact the outcome could not have been worse. The Sunnis pulled out all their stops and still lost, telling them the system is stacked so heavily against them they have no political future. Where ballots fail, bullets still offer promise.

Another reason the WMD lie matters is that the real reason the administration invaded Iraq, "to redesign the Middle East," reveals (officially) a truly breathtaking hubris, coupled to a monumental ignorance of the region in question. Redesign the Middle East? What do the Bushies think it is, a Chevrolet?

At it happens, the war in Iraq is redesigning the Middle East, but not exactly in a planned fashion. Just as the calling of the Estates General in 1789 opened the door to the French Revolution, so the American destruction of the Iraqi state has opened the door to a broader collapse of the state system in that region, an outcome the administration is now pushing in Syria as well. Osama, sitting in his cave, no doubt continues to thank Allah for President George W. Bush.

Finally, the official revelation, in Congressional testimony no less, that the Bush administration's motto is "Lies R US" will matter politically, as the American people begin to come to grips with the fact of a lost war. That may happen by the elections of 2006; it will certainly happen by 2008. It is safe to say that the public will not be happy, and the realization that they were lied into the lost war won't make them any happier. As Republican Members of Congress are beginning to realize, the blowback may be of historic proportions. Anyone seen any Whigs lately? (The fact that the Democrats continue to offer a profile in cowardice on the war might even open the door to a serious third party, God willing. There have to be some real, small-r republicans out there still.)

And so Wilsonianism will come full circle. Wilson lied America into World War I, with fables of German soldiers bayoneting Belgian babies. The result was Lenin, Hitler and World War II. But the experience did give America a lesson in minding her own business and, for a time, a foreign policy for Americans (first). This time, Wilsonianism will give us a vastly disordered Middle East, the greatest Islamic victory since the fall of Constantinople and oil prices that might make the Trabant America's best-selling car. Will it also give us, again, a foreign policy for Americans, as Senator Robert A. Taft put it? We can hope, we can hope.

Contributing Editor William S. Lind, a veteran defense policy analyst, is Director of the Center for Cultural Conservatism at the Free Congress Foundation. The views expressed in this article are those of Mr. Lind writing in his personal capacity. He can be reached through the foundation's mailform. Please send
Snuffysmith
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Dating Cheney's nuclear drumbeat
By Jim Lobe

In the wake of the release of the Downing Street memo, there has been much talk about how the Bush administration "fixed" its intelligence to create a war fever in the US in the many months leading up to the invasion of Iraq. What still remains to be fully grasped, however, is the wider pattern of propaganda that underlay the administration's war effort - in particular, the overlapping networks of relationships that tied together so many key figures in the administration, the neo-conservatives and their allies on the outside, and parts of the media in what became a seamless, boundary-less operation to persuade the American people that Saddam Hussein represented an intolerable threat to their national security.

Vice President Dick Cheney, for instance, is widely credited with having launched the administration's nuclear drumbeat to war in Iraq via a series of speeches he gave, beginning in August 2002, vividly accusing Saddam of having an active nuclear weapons program. As it happens though, he started beating the nuclear drum with vigor significantly earlier than most remember; indeed at a time that was particularly curious given its proximity to the famous mission former ambassador Joseph Wilson took on behalf of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Cheney's initial public attempts to raise the nuclear nightmare did not in fact begin with his August 2002 barrage of nuclear speeches, but rather five months before that, just after his return from a tour of Arab capitals where he had tried in vain to gin up local support for military action against Iraq. Indeed, the specific date on which his campaign was launched was March 24, 2002, when, on return from the Middle East, he appeared on three major Sunday public-affairs television programs bearing similar messages on each. On CNN's Late Edition news show he offered the following comment on Saddam:
This is a man of great evil, as the president said. And he is actively pursuing nuclear weapons at this time.
On NBC's Meet the Press news program he said:
There's good reason to believe that he continues to aggressively pursue the development of a nuclear weapon. Now will he have one in a year, five years? I can't be that precise.
And on CBS's Face the Nation show:
The notion of a Saddam Hussein with his great oil wealth, with his inventory that he already has of biological and chemical weapons, that he might actually acquire a nuclear weapon is, I think, a frightening proposition for anybody who thinks about it. And part of my task out there was to go out and begin the dialogue with our friends to make sure they were thinking about it.
Why do I think that Cheney moment, that particular barrage of statements about Saddam's supposed nuclear program, remains so significant today, in light of the Plame affair? (The identity of CIA agent Valerie Plame was leaked to the press, some believe because her ambassador husband, Joseph Wilson, did not go along with the Bush administration's nuclear line on Saddam.)

For one thing, that Sunday's drum roll of nuclear claims indicated that the "intelligence and facts" were already being "fixed around the policy" four months before Sir Richard Dearlove, head of Britain's MI6, reached that conclusion, as recorded in the Downing Street memo. It's worth asking, then: on what basis could Cheney make such assertions with such evident certainty, nearly six months before, on September 7, 2002, Judith Miller and Michael Gordon of the New York Times first broke a story about how Iraq had ordered "specially designed aluminum tubes", supposedly intended as components for centrifuges to enrich uranium for Saddam's nuclear weapons program. Even five months later, after all, those tubes would still be the only real piece of evidence for the existence of an Iraqi nuclear program offered by then-secretary of state Colin Powell in his presentation to the UN Security Council.

Indeed, on March 24 when Cheney made his initial allegations about an Iraqi nuclear program, we know of only two pieces of "evidence" available to him that might conceivably have supported his charges:

1) Testimony from Adnan Ihsan Saeed al-Haideri, a "defector" delivered up by Ahmad Chalabi's exile organization, the Iraqi National Congress (INC), and enthusiastically recounted by the Times' Miller on December 20, 2001 (although rejected as a fabrication by both the CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency). Al-Haideri claimed to have personally worked on renovations of secret facilities for biological, chemical and nuclear weapons in underground wells, private villas and under the Saddam Hussein Hospital in Baghdad as recently as 2000.

2) The infamous forged Niger yellowcake documents that, at some point in December 2001 or January 2002, somehow appeared on Cheney's desk, supposedly through the Defense Intelligence Agency or the CIA, though accounts differ on the precise route it took from Italian military intelligence to the vice president's office. It was these and related documents that spurred Cheney to ask for additional information, a request that would eventually result in Wilson's trip to Niger in late February, which, of course, set the Plame case in motion. Wilson's conclusion - that there was nothing to the story - would echo the conclusions of both US ambassador to Niger Barbro Owens-Kirkpatrick and Marine General Carlton W Fulford Jr, then-deputy commander of the US European Command who was also sent to Niger in February. A couple of days after his return to Washington, Wilson would be debriefed by the CIA.

How far up their respective chains of command Wilson's and Fulford's reports made it remains a significant mystery to this day. Cheney's office, which reportedly had reminded the CIA of the vice president's interest in the agency's follow-up efforts even while Wilson was in Niger, claims never to have heard about either report. We do know that Fulford's report made it up to Joint Chiefs chairman Richard Myers, whose spokesman, however, told the Washington Post in July 2003, shortly after Wilson went public on the New York Times op-ed page, that the general had "no recollection" of it and so no idea whether it continued on to the White House or Cheney's office.

Meanwhile, Cheney, whose initial curiosity set off this flurry of travel and reporting, appeared to have lost interest in the results by the time he left on a Middle Eastern trip in mid-March; at least, no information has come to light so far indicating that he ever got back to the CIA or anyone else with further questions or requests on the matter of whether Saddam had actually been in the market for Niger yellowcake uranium ore. Yet, within four days of his return to Washington, there he was on the Sunday TV shows assuring the nation's viewers that Iraq was indeed "actively pursuing nuclear weapons at this time".

Did he then acquire new information, perhaps from Iraq's neighbors, during his trip to the Middle East, or had he simply decided by then that the "facts" really had to be "fixed" - or more precisely in Wilson's case, ignored altogether - if the American people were to be persuaded that war was the only solution to the problem of Saddam? In any event, one can only describe his sudden lack of curiosity combined with his public certainty on the subject as, well ... curious.

That Cheney did indeed make the initial request to follow up on the Niger yellowcake report appears now to be beyond dispute, and it also draws attention to another little-noted curiosity of the Plame case - the knowledge and role of Clifford May, ex-New York Timesman, recent head of communications for the Republican National Committee (1997-2001), and president of the ultra-neo-conservative Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD).

In an article at National Review Online (NRO) on September 29, 2003 (as pressure was building on attorney general John Ashcroft to appoint a special prosecutor in the case), he boasted that he had been informed by an unnamed former government official of Wilson's wife's identity long before her outing as a CIA operative by Robert Novak, on July 14, 2003, and so had assumed that her identity (and relationship to Wilson) had been an "open secret" among the Washington cognoscenti. He has subsequently told the Nation magazine's David Corn among others that he was interviewed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation but has never been asked to testify on the subject before special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald's grand jury.

In that NRO article, he also noted that he "was the first to publicly question the credibility of Mr Wilson" following the ambassador's Times op-ed. Indeed, only five days after that op-ed appeared, on July 11, 2003, NRO published May's first attack on Wilson - many more would follow right up to the present - depicting the ambassador as a "pro-Saudi, leftist partisan with an axe to grind". The article - and this is the curious part - included the following passage: "Mr Wilson was sent to Niger by the CIA to verify a US intelligence report about the sale of yellowcake - because Vice President Dick Cheney requested it, because Cheney had doubts about the validity of the intelligence report." This phrasing is fascinating because it purports to know Cheney's subjective motivation, and the motivation ascribed to him - that he had "doubts" about the Niger story - conflicts with everything we've otherwise come to understand about why he asked for the Niger story to be investigated. It hints, certainly, at how consciously Cheney would indeed fix the facts when it came to Saddam's nuclear doings.

Given this tidbit of curious information hidden in May's piece, it's important to know what former government officials might not only have told May about Plame's identity but possibly about Cheney's real thoughts on the subject of Saddam's nuclear program - presuming, that is, that Cheney himself or "Scooter Libby", his chief of staff, was not the source. Among May's board of advisers at FDD were several former government officials, a number of whom were known to be very close to Cheney and Libby as well as to Pentagon hawks like then-deputy secretary of defense Paul Wolfowitz and under secretary of defense Douglas Feith. They included head of the Center for Security Policy Frank Gaffney, former CIA director James Woolsey, and Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol. All of them played starring roles in efforts to tie Saddam's Iraq to al-Qaeda and the September 11 attacks, as well as in raising the nuclear bogeyman well before Cheney did so on March 24, 2002.

In fact, a close examination of how the pre-war propaganda machine worked shows that it was led by the neo-cons and their associates outside the administration, particularly those on the Defense Policy Board (DPB) like Richard Perle, Woolsey and Kenneth "Cakewalk" Adelman (and Judith Miller of the Times) who had long championed the cause of Ahmad Chalabi and his INC, and were also close to the Office of Special Plans that Douglas Feith had set up in the Pentagon to cherry-pick intelligence. They would invariably be the first to float new "evidence" against Saddam (such as the infamous supposed Prague meeting of September 11 conspirator Mohammed Atta with an Iraqi intelligence officer). They would then tie this "evidence" into ongoing arguments for "regime change" in Iraq that would often appear in the Times or elsewhere as news and subsequently be picked up by senior administration officials and fed into the drumbeat of war commentary pouring out of official Washington. It is by now perfectly clear that the neo-conservatives on the outside were aided by like-minded journalists, particularly the Times' Miller - then the only "straight" reporter on the client list of neo-conservative heavyweights and columnists represented by Benador Associates - and media outlets, especially the Wall Street Journal's editorial page and Fox News. Working hand-in-glove with the war hawks on the inside, they created a powerful and persuasive machine to convince the public that Saddam's Iraq represented an imminent and potentially cataclysmic threat to the US that had to be eliminated once and for all. The failure to investigate and demonstrate precisely how seamlessly this web of intra and extra-administration connections worked in the run-up to the war - including perhaps in the concoction of the Niger yellowcake documents, as some former intelligence officials have recently suggested - has been perhaps the most shocking example of the mainstream media's failure to connect the dots (the reporters from Knight-Ridder excepted.)

In that context, it is worth noting the first moment that the specter of an advanced Iraqi nuclear-weapons program was propelled into post-September 11 public consciousness. On December 20, 2001, the New York Times published Judith Miller's version of the sensational charges made by Chalabi-aided defector al-Haideri. Her report was immediately seized on by former CIA director and Defense Policy Board member Woolsey, (who had just spent many weeks trying desperately but unsuccessfully to confirm the alleged Mohammed Atta meeting in Prague that would have linked Saddam to the September 11 attackers). Appearing that same evening on CNBC's "Hard Ball", he breathlessly told Chris Matthews, "I think this is a very important story. I give Judy Miller a lot of credit for getting it. This defector sounds quite credible." Within a week, he was telling the Washington Post that the case that Iraq was developing nuclear weapons was a "slam dunk". (Now, there's a familiar expression!) He continued confidently, "There is so much evidence with respect to his development of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles ... that I consider this point beyond dispute."

One week later, Perle weighed in with an op-ed in the New York Times in which he also referred to Miller's work, albeit without naming her. "With each passing day, [Saddam] comes closer to his dream of a nuclear arsenal," he wrote.

"We know he has a clandestine program, spread over many hidden sites, to enrich Iraqi natural uranium (Nigerian yellowcake perhaps?) to weapons grade. We know he has the designs and the technical staff to fabricate nuclear weapons once he obtains the material. And intelligence sources know he is in the market, with plenty of money, for both weapons material and components as well as finished nuclear weapons. How close is he? We do not know. Two years, three years, tomorrow even? We simply do not know, and any intelligence estimate that would cause us to relax would be about as useful as the ones that missed his nuclear program in the early 1990s or failed to predict the Indian nuclear test in 1998 or to gain even a hint of the September 11 attack."

It was a new argument being taken out for a test run, one that would become painfully familiar in the months that followed. At about that time, or shortly thereafter, a report about the mysterious Niger documents landed on Cheney's desk, and the rest would be history.

Jim Lobe is a reporter for the Rome-based international news agency Inter Press Service and has followed the paths of the neo-conservatives since the early 1970s.

(Copyright 2005 Jim Lobe)
Snuffysmith
Bush's Popularity Reaches New Low

By Richard Morin and Dan Balz

For the first time in his presidency a majority of Americans question the integrity of President Bush, and growing doubts about his leadership have left him with record negative ratings on the economy, Iraq and even the war on terrorism, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows.

On almost every key measure of presidential character and performance, the survey found that Bush has never been less popular with the American people. Currently 39 percent approve of the job he is doing as president, while 60 percent disapprove of his performance in office -- the highest level of disapproval ever recorded for Bush in Post-ABC polls.

Virtually the only possible bright spot for Bush in the survey was generally favorable, if not quite enthusiastic, early reaction to his latest Supreme Court nominee, Samuel A. Alito Jr. Half of Americans say Alito should be confirmed by the Senate, and less than a third view him as too conservative, the poll found.

Overall, the survey underscores how several pillars of Bush's presidency have begun to crumble under the combined weight of events and White House mistakes. Bush's approval ratings have been in decline for months, but on issues of personal trust, honesty and values, Bush has suffered some of his most notable declines. Moreover, Bush has always retained majority support on his handling of the U.S. campaign against terrorism -- until now, when 51 percent have registered disapproval.

The CIA leak case has apparently contributed to a withering decline in how Americans view Bush personally. The survey found that 40 percent now view him as honest and trustworthy -- a 13 percentage point drop in the past 18 months. Nearly 6 in 10 -- 58 percent -- said they have doubts about Bush's honesty, the first time in his presidency that more than half the country has questioned his personal integrity.

The indictment Friday of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Cheney's former chief of staff, in the CIA leak case added to the burden of an administration already reeling from a failed Supreme Court nomination, public dissatisfaction with the economy and continued bloodshed in Iraq. According to the survey, 52 percent say the charges against Libby signal the presence of deeper ethical wrongdoing in the administration. Half believe White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove, the president's top political hand, also did something wrong in the case -- about 6 in 10 say Rove should resign.

Beyond the leak case, Americans give the administration low scores on ethics, according to the survey, with 67 percent rating the administration negatively on handling ethical matters, while just 32 percent give the administration positive marks. Four in 10 -- 43 percent -- say the level of ethics and honesty in the federal government has fallen during Bush's presidency, while 17 percent say it has risen.

Faced with its cascade of recent setbacks, the White House is hoping the latest court nomination can rally disaffected conservatives and score the president a victory akin to the one he enjoyed in the nomination of Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. Alito begins the confirmation process with the support of 49 percent of the public, while 29 percent say he should not be confirmed, the poll found. One in 5 Americans -- 22 percent -- did not yet know enough about him to make a judgment.

The dissatisfaction with Bush flows in part out of broad concerns about the overall direction of the country. Nearly 7 in 10 -- 68 percent -- believe the country is seriously off course, while only 30 percent are optimistic, the lowest level in more than nine years. Only 3 in 10 express high levels of confidence in Bush, while half say they have little or no confidence in this administration.

Just 35 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as either excellent or good, with 65 percent describing it as not so good or poor. Although the government reported last week that gross domestic product rose 3.8 percent in the last quarter, despite the effects of Hurricane Katrina, 29 percent of those surveyed said they regard the economy as poor, the highest recorded during Bush's presidency.

Attitudes toward Bush are sharply polarized by party, as they have been throughout his presidency. Almost 8 in 10 -- 78 percent -- of Republicans support the president, while just 11 percent of Democrats rate him positively. Republicans long have been the key to Bush's overall strength, but Bush has suffered some defections since the beginning of the year, when 91 percent approved of the way he was handling his job.

Among independents, Bush's approval has plummeted since the beginning of the year. In the latest poll, 33 percent of independents approved of his performance, while 66 percent disapproved. In January, independents were evenly divided, with 49 percent approving and an equal percentage disapproving.

The intensity of Bush's support has changed since his reelection a year ago, with opponents deepening their hostility toward the administration. In the latest survey, 47 percent said they strongly disapprove of the way he was performing in office, compared with 35 percent who expressed strong disapproval in January. At the same time, the percentage who say they strongly approve of his performance has fallen from 33 percent last January to 20 percent today.

Iraq remains a significant drag on Bush's presidency, with dissatisfaction over the situation there continuing to grow and with suspicion rising over whether administration officials misled the country in the run-up to the invasion more than two years ago.

Nearly two-thirds disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation there, while barely a third approve, a new low. Six in 10 now believe the United States was wrong to invade Iraq, a seven-point increase in just over two months, with almost half the country saying they strongly believe it was wrong.

About 3 in 4 -- 73 percent -- say there have been an unacceptable level of casualties in Iraq. More than half -- 52 percent -- say the war with Iraq has not contributed to the long-term security of the United States.

The same percentage -- 52 percent -- says the United States should keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is restored, and only about 1 in 5 -- 18 percent -- say the United States should withdraw its forces immediately. In the week after U.S. deaths in Iraq passed the 2,000 mark, a majority of those surveyed -- 55 percent -- said the United States is not making significant progress toward stabilizing the country.

The war has taken a toll on the administration's credibility: A clear majority -- 55 percent -- now says the administration deliberately misled the country in making its case for war with Iraq -- a conflict that an even larger majority say is not worth the cost.

The president's handling of terrorism was widely regarded among strategists as the key to his winning a second term last year. But questions about Bush's effectiveness on other fronts have also depreciated this asset. His 48 percent approval now compares with 61 percent approval on this issue at the time of his second inauguration, down from a 2004 high of 66 percent.

Bush also set new lows in the latest Post-ABC News poll for his management of the economy, where disapproval topped 60 percent for the first time in his presidency. And 6 in 10 are critical of the way Bush is dealing with health care -- a double-digit increase since March. On gasoline prices, Bush's numbers have increased slightly over the past two months but still remain highly negative, with just 26 percent rating him positively.

The survey suggests a rapidly widening gulf between Bush and the American people. Two in 3 say Bush does not understand the problems of people like them, a 10 percentage point increase since January.

Nearly 6 in 10 -- 58 percent -- doubt Bush shares their values, while 40 percent say he does, another new low for this president. For the first time since he took office, fewer than half -- 47 percent -- said Bush is a strong leader, and Americans divided equally over whether Bush can be trusted in a crisis.

Told of the poll results, Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman said Bush will rally support through such issues as education reform, changes to the tax code, and a new energy strategy to show the public that he "will continue to push for changes in our government to serve the American people."

A total of 1,202 randomly selected adults were interviewed Oct. 30-Nov. 2 for this survey. Margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus three percentage points.

Assistant polling director Claudia Deane contributed to this report.


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Bush's dishonest mistakes
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Jonathan Chait

November 4 2005

DID THE Bush administration mislead the country in the run-up to the Iraq war? Yes, it did. Did the administration "mislead us into war?" No, not exactly. The CIA leak scandal has again placed those questions at the center of the national agenda. Unfortunately, almost nobody seems to be getting them right.

The complete article can be viewed at:
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/o...,3256529.column
Snuffysmith
William M. Arkin on National and Homeland Security
Inside U.S. War Plans

"Do Pentagon war planners game-play war against Venezuela? Of course they do," says WS, commenting on my blog saying that the Pentagon was newly eyeing Venezuela as a military threat and initiating war planning, "they probably game-play war against the Swiss!"

"I'd guess that there are hundreds of contingency plans in existence," Dave comments, "perhaps … even including some developed to respond to changes in our current allies' positions."

WS and Dave credit the Pentagon with far more prescience and capability then it actually possesses. Though there is an awful lot of contingency planning going on in this military-first, post 9/11 world, there aren't plans for every country or even for every potentially hostile country.

On the other hand, under Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, the military has made radical changes in both its methods of war planning and the plans themselves, a move that ultimately eases the ability of the government to take military action. Since the act of preparing a war plan for a country like Venezuela has such profound political consequences, it is a system that requires much greater transparency. Here is my small contribution:


According to Pentagon documents, my research and a lot of educated guesswork, the United States military currently has some 70 overall plans. These plans themselves take many forms, some being full-fledged war plans, others short fused "strategic concepts" for plans.



Of the 70 operations plans, only 48 are actual plans contemplating combat with other countries. That is because 10 plans deal with the air defense of the United States, homeland defense and other domestic defense tasks while 11 are generic "functional" plans (FUNCPLANs) dealing with humanitarian assistance, counter-narcotics, peacekeeping, and other military operations in "permissive" environments.

Of the 48, five are what are called "complete" OPLANs, or operations plans. OPLANs are prepared for specific threats (that is, specific countries) of "compelling national interest" where prospective large scale operations demand detailed planning, actual target lists, and the logistics and choreography worked out for a conflict.

Of the five current OPLANs (and that is all that there are), one is the United States nuclear war plan (OPLAN 8044, and sometimes known as the Single Integrated Operational Plan or SIOP). Two are contingencies in Asia, one regarding defense of South Korea against a North Korea invasion (OPLAN 5027) and the other presumably a different Korean peninsula scenario (OPLAN 5077). Two war plans exist for the Middle East: one for Iraq (OPLAN 1003) that has already been implemented and another for an unknown contingency, possibly Iran. A sixth OPLAN (OPLAN 2002) exists, but it deals purely with homeland defense.

Thirty-nine of the remaining 43 plans are what are called CONPLANs, "Operations Plans in Concept Form Only." These are operations plans in an abbreviated format prepared for less compelling contingencies, plausible but not likely in the near term. CONPLANs can be prepared for smaller scale operations as well as for what are called non-specific threats.

In addition to OPLANs and CONPLANs, there are four "strategic concepts" that have been more recently prepared. Though every OPLAN and CONPLAN includes the commander's statement of his strategic concept, stand alone strategic concepts are a post 9/11 invention allowing regional commanders to develop plan concepts, enemy estimates, alternative courses of action, and target lists prior to the completion of a CONPLAN or OPLAN.

By regional command, the OPLANs, CONPLANs, and Strategic Concepts plans are broken down as follows:

Central Command (Middle East): 2 OPLANs, 7 CONPLANs, 2 strategic concepts
European Command: 10 CONPLANs
Pacific Command: 2 OPLANs, 12 CONPLANs, 2 strategic concepts
Southern Command (Latin America): 7 CONPLANs
U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), in addition to preparing the central nuclear war plan (OPLAN 8044), also has responsibility for three global CONPLANs, one for nuclear and conventional "global strike" (CONPLAN 8022), which is the implementation of the Bush administration's policy of preemption, one for ballistic missile defense (CONPLAN 8055), and one of unknown nomenclature (CONPLAN 80??) presumably for "information operations," or cyber warfare, STRATCOM's newly assigned global mission.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff organization is also responsible for two weapons of mass destruction plans, one (CONPLAN 0400) dealing with offensive counter-proliferation and the other (CONPLAN 0300) for special operations support in the event of a WMD incident. A third JCS CONPLAN is for unknown purposes. Finally, it is presumed that the U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) has a newly produced CONPLAN to fight the global war on terrorism.

For some contingencies, such as North Korea, there are multiple OPLANs and CONPLANs: CONPLAN 5026, 5027, 5029, and 5030 are all known to deal with different Korean peninsula scenarios. There are also specific OPLANs and CONPLANs for Iraq.

You must be thinking if you've kept up with the arithmetic that with some 30 plans left, clearly there is room for Venezuela. Not so quick. Each of the commands has war plans for the "defense" of key allies: CONPLAN 4305 exists for the defense of Israel; CONPLAN 5055 seems to deal with the defense of Japan. Add up U.S. treaty commitments and deployments, and the number now shrinks to about 20.

Then there are the one or two generic CONPLANs each command has to guide unassigned small scale contingencies. European command, in addition, has a new set of "non-specific" CONPLANs dealing with potential regional action in the Transcaucasus, the Baltics, West Africa, Equatorial Africa and Southern Africa. Pacific Command has regional plans for South Asia, the Southeast Asia mainland, and Southeast Asian islands. Central Command has a regional plan for the Horn of Africa; Southern Command has one for the Caribbean.

So there are no more than ten plans that deal with specific "threats" and that has to accommodate one or more plans for Iran and China, possible contingency plans if thing go sour with Russia, additional contingencies dealing with Syria and Cuba, and yes, even Venezuela.

So on the one hand there are generic contingencies for virtually every corner of the planet, as well as war plans supporting transnational global combat -- preemption, cyber warfare, the war on terrorism -- that cross command boundaries and can apply to more than one country.

On the other, there are only a limited number of staff officers and a limited amount of resources. A decision to undertake serious planning for a new contingency -- such as a Venezuela -- is a big one. It is particularly burdensome on the intelligence community, which has to produce "threat" estimates and enemy order of battle and target lists.

As planning software improves and the military moves to integrated network operations, the ease with which a plan can be quickly prepared will also increase. Already the Pentagon has shaved the time it takes in the old process to build a plan from 12-22 months to 4-6 months. With Rumsfeld's new "adaptive planning" initiative -- the draft Adaptive Planning Roadmap was approved on March 11 -- a whole new process of quick reaction plans is in the works.


Today, as far as I can surmise, there isn't a contingency plan for Venezuela. But there can be one real soon.

http://blogs.washingtonpost.com/earlywarni...war_p.html#more
Snuffysmith
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New York Times
November 6, 2005
Report Warned Bush Team About Intelligence Doubts
By DOUGLAS JEHL
WASHINGTON, Nov. 5 — A top member of Al Qaeda in American custody was identified as a likely fabricator months before the Bush administration began to use his statements as the foundation for its claims that Iraq trained Al Qaeda members to use biological and chemical weapons, according to newly declassified portions of a Defense Intelligence Agency document.

The document, an intelligence report from February 2002, said it was probable that the prisoner, Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi, “was intentionally misleading the debriefers’’ in making claims about Iraqi support for Al Qaeda’s work with illicit weapons.

The document provides the earliest and strongest indication of doubts voiced by American intelligence agencies about Mr. Libi’s credibility. Without mentioning him by name, President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, Colin L. Powell, then secretary of state, and other administration officials repeatedly cited Mr. Libi’s information as “credible’’ evidence that Iraq was training Al 8Qaeda members in the use of explosives and illicit weapons.

Among the first and most prominent assertions was one by Mr. Bush, who said in a major speech in Cincinnati in October 2002 that “we’ve learned that Iraq has trained Al Qaeda members in bomb making and poisons and gases.’’

The newly declassified portions of the document were made available by Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Mr. Levin said the new evidence of early doubts about Mr. Libi’s statements dramatized what he called the Bush administration’s misuse of prewar intelligence to try to justify the war in Iraq. That is an issue that Mr. Levin and other Senate Democrats have been seeking to emphasize, in part by calling attention to the fact that the Republican-led Senate intelligence committee has yet to deliver a promised report, first sought more than two years ago, on the use of prewar intelligence.

An administration official declined to comment on the D.I.A. report on Mr. Libi. But Senate Republicans, put on the defensive when Democrats forced a closed session of the Senate this week to discuss the issue, have been arguing that Republicans were not alone in making prewar assertions about Iraq, illicit weapons and terrorism that have since been discredited.

Mr. Libi, who was captured in Pakistan at the end of 2001, recanted his claims in January 2004. That prompted the C.I.A., a month later, to recall all intelligence reports based on his statements, a fact recorded in a footnote to the report issued by the Sept. 11 commission.

Mr. Libi was not alone among intelligence sources later determined to have been fabricating accounts. Among others, an Iraqi exile whose code name was Curveball was the primary source for what proved to be false information about Iraq and mobile biological weapons labs. And American military officials cultivated ties with Ahmad Chalabi, the head of the Iraqi National Congress, an exile group, who has been accused of feeding the Pentagon misleading information in urging war.

The report issued by the Senate intelligence committee in July 2004 questioned whether some versions of intelligence report prepared by the C.I.A. in late 2002 and early 2003 raised sufficient questions about the reliability of Mr. Libi’s claims.

But neither that report nor another issued by the Sept. 11 commission made any reference to the existence of the earlier and more skeptical 2002 report by the D.I.A., which supplies intelligence to military commanders and national security policy makers. As an official intelligence report, labeled DITSUM No. 044-02, the document would have circulated widely within the government, and it would have been available to the C.I.A., the White House, the Pentagon and other agencies. It remains unclear whether the D.I.A. document was provided to the Senate panel.

In outlining reasons for its skepticism, the D.I.A. report noted that Mr. Libi’s claims lacked specific details about the Iraqis involved, the illicit weapons used and the location where the training was to have taken place.

“It is possible he does not know any further details; it is more likely this individual is intentionally misleading the debriefers,’’ the February 2002 report said. “Ibn al-Shaykh has been undergoing debriefs for several weeks and may be describing scenarios to the debriefers that he knows will retain their interest.’’

Mr. Powell relied heavily on accounts provided by Mr. Libi for his speech to the United Nations Security Council on Feb. 5, 2003, saying that he was tracing “the story of a senior terrorist operative telling how Iraq provided training in these weapons to Al Qaeda.’’

At the time of Mr. Powell’s speech, an unclassified statement by the C.I.A. described the reporting, now known to have been from Mr. Libi, as “credible.’’ But Mr. Levin said he had learned that a classified C.I.A. assessment at the time stated “the source was not in a position to know if any training had taken place.’’

In an interview on Friday, Mr. Levin also called attention to a portion of the D.I.A. report that expressed skepticism about the idea of close collaboration between Iraq and Al Qaeda, an idea that was never substantiated by American intelligence but was a pillar of the administration’s prewar claims.

“Saddam’s regime is intensely secular and is wary of Islamic revolutionary movements,’’ the D.I.A. report said in one of two declassified paragraphs. “Moreover, Baghdad is unlikely to provide assistance to a group it cannot control.’’

The request to declassify the two paragraphs was made on Oct. 18 by Mr. Levin and Senator John D. Rockefeller IV of West Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee. In an Oct. 26 response, Kathleen P. Turner, chief of the D.I.A.’s office for Congressional affairs, said the agency “can find no reason for it to remain classified.’’

At the time of his capture, Mr. Libi was the most senior Qaeda official in American custody. The D.I.A. document gave no indication of where he was being held, or what interrogation methods were used on him.

Mr. Libi remains in custody, apparently at Guantбnamo Bay, Cuba, where he was sent in 2003, according to government officials.

The Senate intelligence committee is scheduled to meet beginning next week to review draft reports prepared as part of a long-postponed “Phase II’’ of the panel’s review of prewar intelligence on Iraq. At separate briefings for reporters on Friday, Republicans staff members said the writing had long been under way, while Senate Democrats on the committee claimed credit for reinvigorating the process, by forcing the closed session. They said that already nearly complete is a look at whether prewar intelligence accurately predicted the potential for an anti-American insurgency.

Other areas of focus include the role played by the Iraqi National Congress, that of the Pentagon in shaping intelligence assessments, and an examination of whether public statements about Iraq by members of the Bush and Clinton administrations, as well as members of Congress, were substantiated by intelligence available at the time.

Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company
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New York Times
November 6, 2005
White House Tries to Keep Distance From Leak Case
By RICHARD W. STEVENSON
WASHINGTON, Nov. 5 - In the hours before the Justice Department informed the White House in late September 2003 that it would investigate the leak of a covert C.I.A. officer's identity, Scott McClellan, the White House press secretary, gave reporters what turned out to be a rare glimpse into President Bush's knowledge of the case.

Mr. Bush, he said, "knows" that Karl Rove, his senior adviser, had not been the source of the leak. Pressed on how Mr. Bush was certain, Mr. McClellan said he was "not going to get into conversations that the president has with advisers," but made no effort to erase the impression that Mr. Rove had assured Mr. Bush that he had not been involved.

Since then, administration officials and Mr. Bush himself have carefully avoided disclosing anything about any involvement the president may have had in the events surrounding the disclosure of the officer's identity or anything about what his aides may have told them about their roles. Citing the continuing investigation and now the pending trial of I. Lewis Libby Jr., Vice President Dick Cheney's former chief of staff, they have declined to comment on almost any aspect of the case.

The issue now for the White House is how long it can go on deflecting the inquiries and trying to keep the focus away from Mr. Bush.

While there has been no suggestion that Mr. Bush did anything wrong, the portrait of the White House that was painted by the special counsel in the indictment of Mr. Libby was one in which a variety of senior officials, including Mr. Cheney, played some role in events that preceded the disclosure of the officer's identity.

Mr. Bush was not mentioned in the indictment. But the fact that so many of his aides seem to have been involved in dealing with the issue that eventually led to the leak - how to rebut or discredit Joseph C. Wilson IV, a former diplomat who had challenged the administration's handling of prewar intelligence - leaves open the question of what the president knew.

The White House has also kept a tight lid on information about what Mr. Bush learned afterward about any involvement that Mr. Cheney, Mr. Libby, Mr. Rove and others may have had in the leak.

People involved in the case have confirmed that Mr. Rove told Mr. Bush and other White House colleagues in September 2003 that he had no involvement, but it is not known what, if anything, Mr. Rove has told Mr. Bush since testifying to the grand jury last year and this year that he had conversations with two reporters that touched on the identity of the officer, Valerie Wilson. What, if anything, Mr. Cheney and Mr. Libby may have told Mr. Bush remains a mystery.

From a political perspective, the investigation now seems to be taking a toll on Mr. Bush. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Thursday found that only 40 percent of Americans see him as honest and trustworthy, down from 53 percent in May 2004 and 62 percent soon after he took office in 2001; 58 percent said they did not see him as honest and trustworthy, up from 45 percent last year and 32 percent in 2001.

At the same time, Democrats are demanding that he live up to his earlier pledges to hold his administration to the highest ethical standards, "not only what is legal but what is right, not just what the lawyers allow but what the public deserves," as Mr. Bush put it at the end of the 2000 presidential campaign. And Democrats are drawing renewed attention to an apparent change in Mr. Bush's standard for what would constitute a firing offense, to anyone who "committed a crime," the threshold he used when he addressed the issue in July, from anyone who was "involved in" a leak of classified information, a definition Mr. McClellan used in 2003.

More broadly, Democrats and their allies are trying to place the leak case at the heart of their argument that the administration has shown itself to be incompetent, dishonest and out of touch with middle-class Americans. "Katrina. Iraq. Indictment. George Bush's presidency is in trouble, and he'll do anything to save it," said a new television commercial from People for the American Way, a liberal group opposing the nomination of Judge Samuel A. Alito Jr. to the Supreme Court.

"We're at the very beginning stages of this, not at the end," said Representative Rahm Emanuel, Democrat of Illinois, referring to the political impact of the investigation.

"The president, politically at least, has an obligation to say something to the American people to get some clarity about what did they know and what did they say," he said.

But the Bush White House has always been good at what one close Republican ally refers to admiringly as "making their own reality," meaning that the president and his top aides stick doggedly to their political script and agenda, refusing to be knocked off course. What Democrats consider stubbornness and detachment, Mr. Bush's admirers consider determination, and in this case that trait suggests the White House will be in no rush to acknowledge mistakes or to offer detailed explanations that might swamp the president's second-term plans.

"A White House that is aggressively on message is an unstoppable political tool," said Rich Galen, a Republican consultant. "Just as the Clinton White House got itself back together in '95 and after impeachment, this White House will get itself together, too."

Whatever political problems the Libby indictment creates, he said, "It's a long way from the Veep's office to the Oval. No one has ever hinted that President Bush was involved in this or was even aware of it. I really don't think the issue will have legs beyond the next couple of weeks."

The administration's supporters point out that Mr. Bush has repeatedly emphasized that the White House will cooperate fully with the special counsel, Patrick J. Fitzgerald. The administration raised no issues of executive privilege when it came to documents sought by investigators. Mr. Fitzgerald had given no indication that he was denied any information on the ground of national security. No officials are known to have taken the Fifth Amendment to avoid incriminating themselves.

Therefore, allies of the White House said, it would be hard to make a case, legally or politically, that there was any organized effort to cover up what happened, despite Mr. Libby's indictment on charges of trying to do just that. And assuming that Mr. Fitzgerald does not indict Mr. Rove in the next few weeks, Mr. Bush has a natural firebreak available to him.

He will be away from Washington for much of the rest of the month. After returning from a trip to South America, Mr. Bush will leave for a week in Asia and then will spend Thanksgiving at his ranch in Texas.

When he returns, allies of the White House said, he hopes to regain traction by moving smoothly ahead with Judge Alito's nomination, shifting the focus to the policies he intends to emphasize next year, including reduced government spending and an overhaul of the immigration and border control systems, and making a more effective case for why victory in Iraq is vital.

"I'm not sure he needs to say anything about the case until the investigation is over," Charlie Black, a Republican strategist, said, "and then I'm not sure they need to do anything differently."

Mr. Black said the political repercussions from the case were "a fairly temporary phenomenon" that would fade in the next few weeks, giving way to the problems that had been presenting such a tremendous challenge to Mr. Bush before the leak case flared up this fall.

"The president's job approval long term is driven by Iraq and the economy much more than this leak stuff," he said. "They know that."

Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company
Snuffysmith
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...0501366_pf.html

washingtonpost.com
The FBI's Secret Scrutiny
In Hunt for Terrorists, Bureau Examines Records of Ordinary Americans

By Barton Gellman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, November 6, 2005; A01



The FBI came calling in Windsor, Conn., this summer with a document marked for delivery by hand. On Matianuk Avenue, across from the tennis courts, two special agents found their man. They gave George Christian the letter, which warned him to tell no one, ever, what it said.

Under the shield and stars of the FBI crest, the letter directed Christian to surrender "all subscriber information, billing information and access logs of any person" who used a specific computer at a library branch some distance away. Christian, who manages digital records for three dozen Connecticut libraries, said in an affidavit that he configures his system for privacy. But the vendors of the software he operates said their databases can reveal the Web sites that visitors browse, the e-mail accounts they open and the books they borrow.

Christian refused to hand over those records, and his employer, Library Connection Inc., filed suit for the right to protest the FBI demand in public. The Washington Post established their identities -- still under seal in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit -- by comparing unsealed portions of the file with public records and information gleaned from people who had no knowledge of the FBI demand.

The Connecticut case affords a rare glimpse of an exponentially growing practice of domestic surveillance under the USA Patriot Act, which marked its fourth anniversary on Oct. 26. "National security letters," created in the 1970s for espionage and terrorism investigations, originated as narrow exceptions in consumer privacy law, enabling the FBI to review in secret the customer records of suspected foreign agents. The Patriot Act, and Bush administration guidelines for its use, transformed those letters by permitting clandestine scrutiny of U.S. residents and visitors who are not alleged to be terrorists or spies.

The FBI now issues more than 30,000 national security letters a year, according to government sources, a hundredfold increase over historic norms. The letters -- one of which can be used to sweep up the records of many people -- are extending the bureau's reach as never before into the telephone calls, correspondence and financial lives of ordinary Americans.

Issued by FBI field supervisors, national security letters do not need the imprimatur of a prosecutor, grand jury or judge. They receive no review after the fact by the Justice Department or Congress. The executive branch maintains only statistics, which are incomplete and confined to classified reports. The Bush administration defeated legislation and a lawsuit to require a public accounting, and has offered no example in which the use of a national security letter helped disrupt a terrorist plot.

The burgeoning use of national security letters coincides with an unannounced decision to deposit all the information they yield into government data banks -- and to share those private records widely, in the federal government and beyond. In late 2003, the Bush administration reversed a long-standing policy requiring agents to destroy their files on innocent American citizens, companies and residents when investigations closed. Late last month, President Bush signed Executive Order 13388, expanding access to those files for "state, local and tribal" governments and for "appropriate private sector entities," which are not defined.

National security letters offer a case study of the impact of the Patriot Act outside the spotlight of political debate. Drafted in haste after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the law's 132 pages wrought scores of changes in the landscape of intelligence and law enforcement. Many received far more attention than the amendments to a seemingly pedestrian power to review "transactional records." But few if any other provisions touch as many ordinary Americans without their knowledge.

Senior FBI officials acknowledged in interviews that the proliferation of national security letters results primarily from the bureau's new authority to collect intimate facts about people who are not suspected of any wrongdoing. Criticized for failure to detect the Sept. 11 plot, the bureau now casts a much wider net, using national security letters to generate leads as well as to pursue them. Casual or unwitting contact with a suspect -- a single telephone call, for example -- may attract the attention of investigators and subject a person to scrutiny about which he never learns.

A national security letter cannot be used to authorize eavesdropping or to read the contents of e-mail. But it does permit investigators to trace revealing paths through the private affairs of a modern digital citizen. The records it yields describe where a person makes and spends money, with whom he lives and lived before, how much he gambles, what he buys online, what he pawns and borrows, where he travels, how he invests, what he searches for and reads on the Web, and who telephones or e-mails him at home and at work.

As it wrote the Patriot Act four years ago, Congress bought time and leverage for oversight by placing an expiration date on 16 provisions. The changes involving national security letters were not among them. In fact, as the Dec. 31 deadline approaches and Congress prepares to renew or make permanent the expiring provisions, House and Senate conferees are poised again to amplify the FBI's power to compel the secret surrender of private records.

The House and Senate have voted to make noncompliance with a national security letter a criminal offense. The House would also impose a prison term for breach of secrecy.

Like many Patriot Act provisions, the ones involving national security letters have been debated in largely abstract terms. The Justice Department has offered Congress no concrete information, even in classified form, save for a partial count of the number of letters delivered. The statistics do not cover all forms of national security letters or all U.S. agencies making use of them.

"The beef with the NSLs is that they don't have even a pretense of judicial or impartial scrutiny," said former representative Robert L. Barr Jr. (Ga.), who finds himself allied with the American Civil Liberties Union after a career as prosecutor, CIA analyst and conservative GOP stalwart. "There's no checks and balances whatever on them. It is simply some bureaucrat's decision that they want information, and they can basically just go and get it."

'A Routine Tool'

Career investigators and Bush administration officials emphasized, in congressional testimony and interviews for this story, that national security letters are for hunting terrorists, not fishing through the private lives of the innocent. The distinction is not as clear in practice.

Under the old legal test, the FBI had to have "specific and articulable" reasons to believe the records it gathered in secret belonged to a terrorist or a spy. Now the bureau needs only to certify that the records are "sought for" or "relevant to" an investigation "to protect against international terrorism or clandestine intelligence activities."

That standard enables investigators to look for conspirators by sifting the records of nearly anyone who crosses a suspect's path.

"If you have a list of, say, 20 telephone numbers that have come up . . . on a bad guy's telephone," said Valerie E. Caproni, the FBI's general counsel, "you want to find out who he's in contact with." Investigators will say, " 'Okay, phone company, give us subscriber information and toll records on these 20 telephone numbers,' and that can easily be 100."

Bush administration officials compare national security letters to grand jury subpoenas, which are also based on "relevance" to an inquiry. There are differences. Grand juries tend to have a narrower focus because they investigate past conduct, not the speculative threat of unknown future attacks. Recipients of grand jury subpoenas are generally free to discuss the subpoenas publicly. And there are strict limits on sharing grand jury information with government agencies.

Since the Patriot Act, the FBI has dispersed the authority to sign national security letters to more than five dozen supervisors -- the special agents in charge of field offices, the deputies in New York, Los Angeles and Washington, and a few senior headquarters officials. FBI rules established after the Patriot Act allow the letters to be issued long before a case is judged substantial enough for a "full field investigation." Agents commonly use the letters now in "preliminary investigations" and in the "threat assessments" that precede a decision whether to launch an investigation.

"Congress has given us this tool to obtain basic telephone data, basic banking data, basic credit reports," said Caproni, who is among the officials with signature authority. "The fact that a national security letter is a routine tool used, that doesn't bother me."

If agents had to wait for grounds to suspect a person of ill intent, said Joseph Billy Jr., the FBI's deputy assistant director for counterterrorism, they would already know what they want to find out with a national security letter. "It's all chicken and egg," he said. "We're trying to determine if someone warrants scrutiny or doesn't."

Billy said he understands that "merely being in a government or FBI database . . . gives everybody, you know, neck hair standing up." Innocent Americans, he said, "should take comfort at least knowing that it is done under a great deal of investigative care, oversight, within the parameters of the law."

He added: "That's not going to satisfy a majority of people, but . . . I've had people say, you know, 'Hey, I don't care, I've done nothing to be concerned about. You can have me in your files and that's that.' Some people take that approach."

'Don't Go Overboard'

In Room 7975 of the J. Edgar Hoover Building, around two corners from the director's suite, the chief of the FBI's national security law unit sat down at his keyboard about a month after the Patriot Act became law. Michael J. Woods had helped devise the FBI wish list for surveillance powers. Now he offered a caution.

"NSLs are powerful investigative tools, in that they can compel the production of substantial amounts of relevant information," he wrote in a Nov. 28, 2001, "electronic communication" to the FBI's 56 field offices. "However, they must be used judiciously." Standing guidelines, he wrote, "require that the FBI accomplish its investigations through the 'least intrusive' means. . . . The greater availability of NSLs does not mean that they should be used in every case."

Woods, who left government service in 2002, added a practical consideration. Legislators granted the new authority and could as easily take it back. When making that decision, he wrote, "Congress certainly will examine the manner in which the FBI exercised it."

Looking back last month, Woods was struck by how starkly he misjudged the climate. The FBI disregarded his warning, and no one noticed.

"This is not something that should be automatically done because it's easy," he said. "We need to be sure . . . we don't go overboard."

One thing Woods did not anticipate was then-Attorney General John D. Ashcroft's revision of Justice Department guidelines. On May 30, 2002, and Oct. 31, 2003, Ashcroft rewrote the playbooks for investigations of terrorist crimes and national security threats. He gave overriding priority to preventing attacks by any means available.

Ashcroft remained bound by Executive Order 12333, which requires the use of the "least intrusive means" in domestic intelligence investigations. But his new interpretation came close to upending the mandate. Three times in the new guidelines, Ashcroft wrote that the FBI "should consider . . . less intrusive means" but "should not hesitate to use any lawful techniques . . . even if intrusive" when investigators believe them to be more timely. "This point," he added, "is to be particularly observed in investigations relating to terrorist activities."

'Why Do You Want to Know?'

As the Justice Department prepared congressional testimony this year, FBI headquarters searched for examples that would show how expanded surveillance powers made a difference. Michael Mason, who runs the Washington field office and has the rank of assistant FBI director, found no ready answer.

"I'd love to have a made-for-Hollywood story, but I don't have one," Mason said. "I am not even sure such an example exists."

What national security letters give his agents, Mason said, is speed.

"I have 675 terrorism cases," he said. "Every one of these is a potential threat. And anything I can do to get to the bottom of any one of them more quickly gets me closer to neutralizing a potential threat."

Because recipients are permanently barred from disclosing the letters, outsiders can make no assessment of their relevance to Mason's task.

Woods, the former FBI lawyer, said secrecy is essential when an investigation begins because "it would defeat the whole purpose" to tip off a suspected terrorist or spy, but national security seldom requires that the secret be kept forever. Even mobster "John Gotti finds out eventually that he was wiretapped" in a criminal probe, said Peter Swire, the federal government's chief privacy counselor until 2001. "Anyone caught up in an NSL investigation never gets notice."

To establish the "relevance" of the information they seek, agents face a test so basic it is hard to come up with a plausible way to fail. A model request for a supervisor's signature, according to internal FBI guidelines, offers this one-sentence suggestion: "This subscriber information is being requested to determine the individuals or entities that the subject has been in contact with during the past six months."

Edward L. Williams, the chief division counsel in Mason's office, said that supervisors, in practice, "aren't afraid to ask . . . 'Why do you want to know?' " He would not say how many requests, if any, are rejected.

'The Abuse Is in the Power Itself'

Those who favor the new rules maintain -- as Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, put it in a prepared statement -- that "there has not been one substantiated allegation of abuse of these lawful intelligence tools."

What the Bush administration means by abuse is unauthorized use of surveillance data -- for example, to blackmail an enemy or track an estranged spouse. Critics are focused elsewhere. What troubles them is not unofficial abuse but the official and routine intrusion into private lives.

To Jeffrey Breinholt, deputy chief of the Justice Department's counterterrorism section, the civil liberties objections "are eccentric." Data collection on the innocent, he said, does no harm unless "someone [decides] to act on the information, put you on a no-fly list or something." Only a serious error, he said, could lead the government, based on nothing more than someone's bank or phone records, "to freeze your assets or go after you criminally and you suffer consequences that are irreparable." He added: "It's a pretty small chance."

"I don't necessarily want somebody knowing what videos I rent or the fact that I like cartoons," said Mason, the Washington field office chief. But if those records "are never used against a person, if they're never used to put him in jail, or deprive him of a vote, et cetera, then what is the argument?"

Barr, the former congressman, said that "the abuse is in the power itself."

"As a conservative," he said, "I really resent an administration that calls itself conservative taking the position that the burden is on the citizen to show the government has abused power, and otherwise shut up and comply."

At the ACLU, staff attorney Jameel Jaffer spoke of "the profound chilling effect" of this kind of surveillance: "If the government monitors the Web sites that people visit and the books that they read, people will stop visiting disfavored Web sites and stop reading disfavored books. The FBI should not have unchecked authority to keep track of who visits [al-Jazeera's Web site] or who visits the Web site of the Federalist Society."

Links in a Chain

Ready access to national security letters allows investigators to employ them routinely for "contact chaining."

"Starting with your bad guy and his telephone number and looking at who he's calling, and [then] who they're calling," the number of people surveilled "goes up exponentially," acknowledged Caproni, the FBI's general counsel.

But Caproni said it would not be rational for the bureau to follow the chain too far. "Everybody's connected" if investigators keep tracing calls "far enough away from your targeted bad guy," she said. "What's the point of that?"

One point is to fill government data banks for another investigative technique. That one is called "link analysis," a practice Caproni would neither confirm nor deny.

Two years ago, Ashcroft rescinded a 1995 guideline directing that information obtained through a national security letter about a U.S. citizen or resident "shall be destroyed by the FBI and not further disseminated" if it proves "not relevant to the purposes for which it was collected." Ashcroft's new order was that "the FBI shall retain" all records it collects and "may disseminate" them freely among federal agencies.

The same order directed the FBI to develop "data mining" technology to probe for hidden links among the people in its growing cache of electronic files. According to an FBI status report, the bureau's office of intelligence began operating in January 2004 a new Investigative Data Warehouse, based on the same Oracle technology used by the CIA. The CIA is generally forbidden to keep such files on Americans.

Data mining intensifies the impact of national security letters, because anyone's personal files can be scrutinized again and again without a fresh need to establish relevance.

"The composite picture of a person which emerges from transactional information is more telling than the direct content of your speech," said Woods, the former FBI lawyer. "That's certainly not been lost on the intelligence community and the FBI."

Ashcroft's new guidelines allowed the FBI for the first time to add to government files consumer data from commercial providers such as LexisNexis and ChoicePoint Inc. Previous attorneys general had decided that such a move would violate the Privacy Act. In many field offices, agents said, they now have access to ChoicePoint in their squad rooms.

What national security letters add to government data banks is information that no commercial service can lawfully possess. Strict privacy laws, for example, govern financial and communications records. National security letters -- along with the more powerful but much less frequently used secret subpoenas from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court -- override them.

'What Happens in Vegas'

The bureau displayed its ambition for data mining in an emergency operation at the end of 2003.

The Department of Homeland Security declared an orange alert on Dec. 21 of that year, in part because of intelligence that hinted at a New Year's Eve attack in Las Vegas. The identities of the plotters were unknown.

The FBI sent Gurvais Grigg, chief of the bureau's little-known Proactive Data Exploitation Unit, in an audacious effort to assemble a real-time census of every visitor in the nation's most-visited city. An average of about 300,000 tourists a day stayed an average of four days each, presenting Grigg's team with close to a million potential suspects in the ensuing two weeks.

A former stockbroker with a degree in biochemistry, Grigg declined to be interviewed. Government and private sector sources who followed the operation described epic efforts to vacuum up information.

An interagency task force began pulling together the records of every hotel guest, everyone who rented a car or truck, every lease on a storage space, and every airplane passenger who landed in the city. Grigg's unit filtered that population for leads. Any link to the known terrorist universe -- a shared address or utility account, a check deposited, a telephone call -- could give investigators a start.

"It was basically a manhunt, and in circumstances where there is a manhunt, the most effective way of doing that was to scoop up a lot of third party data and compare it to other data we were getting," Breinholt said.

Investigators began with emergency requests for help from the city's sprawling hospitality industry. "A lot of it was done voluntary at first," said Billy, the deputy assistant FBI director.

According to others directly involved, investigators turned to national security letters and grand jury subpoenas when friendly persuasion did not work.

Early in the operation, according to participants, the FBI gathered casino executives and asked for guest lists. The MGM Mirage company, followed by others, balked.

"Some casinos were saying no to consent [and said], 'You have to produce a piece of paper,' " said Jeff Jonas, chief scientist at IBM Entity Analytics, who previously built data management systems for casino surveillance. "They don't just market 'What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.' They want it to be true."

The operation remained secret for about a week. Then casino sources told Rod Smith, gaming editor of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, that the FBI had served national security letters on them. In an interview for this article, one former casino executive confirmed the use of a national security letter. Details remain elusive. Some law enforcement officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they had not been authorized to divulge particulars, said they relied primarily on grand jury subpoenas. One said in an interview that national security letters may eventually have been withdrawn. Agents encouraged voluntary disclosures, he said, by raising the prospect that the FBI would use the letters to gather something more sensitive: the gambling profiles of casino guests. Caproni declined to confirm or deny that account.

What happened in Vegas stayed in federal data banks. Under Ashcroft's revised policy, none of the information has been purged. For every visitor, Breinholt said, "the record of the Las Vegas hotel room would still exist."

Grigg's operation found no suspect, and the orange alert ended on Jan. 10, 2004."The whole thing washed out," one participant said.

'Of Interest to President Bush'

At around the time the FBI found George Christian in Connecticut, agents from the bureau's Charlotte field office paid an urgent call on the chemical engineering department at North Carolina State University in Raleigh. They were looking for information about a former student named Magdy Nashar, then suspected in the July 7 London subway bombing but since cleared of suspicion.

University officials said in interviews late last month that the FBI tried to use a national security letter to demand much more information than the law allows.

David T. Drooz, the university's senior associate counsel, said special authority is required for the surrender of records protected by educational and medical privacy. The FBI's first request, a July 14 grand jury subpoena, did not appear to supply that authority, Drooz said, and the university did not honor it. Referring to notes he took that day, Drooz said Eric Davis, the FBI's top lawyer in Charlotte, "was focused very much on the urgency" and "he even indicated the case was of interest to President Bush."

The next day, July 15, FBI agents arrived with a national security letter. Drooz said it demanded all records of Nashar's admission, housing, emergency contacts, use of health services and extracurricular activities. University lawyers "looked up what law we could on the fly," he said. They discovered that the FBI was demanding files that national security letters have no power to obtain. The statute the FBI cited that day covers only telephone and Internet records.

"We're very eager to comply with the authorities in this regard, but we needed to have what we felt was a legally valid procedure," said Larry A. Neilsen, the university provost.

Soon afterward, the FBI returned with a new subpoena. It was the same as the first one, Drooz said, and the university still had doubts about its legal sufficiency. This time, however, it came from New York and summoned Drooz to appear personally. The tactic was "a bit heavy-handed," Drooz said, "the implication being you're subject to contempt of court." Drooz surrendered the records.

The FBI's Charlotte office referred questions to headquarters. A high-ranking FBI official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, acknowledged that the field office erred in attempting to use a national security letter. Investigators, he said, "were in a big hurry for obvious reasons" and did not approach the university "in the exact right way."

'Unreasonable' or 'Oppressive'

The electronic docket in the Connecticut case, as the New York Times first reported, briefly titled the lawsuit Library Connection Inc. v. Gonzales . Because identifying details were not supposed to be left in the public file, the court soon replaced the plaintiff's name with "John Doe."

George Christian, Library Connection's executive director, is identified in his affidavit as "John Doe 2." In that sworn statement, he said people often come to libraries for information that is "highly sensitive, embarrassing or personal." He wanted to fight the FBI but feared calling a lawyer because the letter said he could not disclose its existence to "any person." He consulted Peter Chase, vice president of Library Connection and chairman of a state intellectual freedom committee. Chase -- "John Doe 1" in his affidavit -- advised Christian to call the ACLU. Reached by telephone at their homes, both men declined to be interviewed.

U.S. District Judge Janet C. Hall ruled in September that the FBI gag order violates Christian's, and Library Connection's, First Amendment rights. A three-judge panel heard oral argument on Wednesday in the government's appeal.

The central facts remain opaque, even to the judges, because the FBI is not obliged to describe what it is looking for, or why. During oral argument in open court on Aug. 31, Hall said one government explanation was so vague that "if I were to say it out loud, I would get quite a laugh here." After the government elaborated in a classified brief delivered for her eyes only, she wrote in her decision that it offered "nothing specific."

The Justice Department tried to conceal the existence of the first and only other known lawsuit against a national security letter, also brought by the ACLU