QUOTE
For Card, a frayed political welcome mat
By Joan Vennochi, Globe Columnist | March 30, 2006
Andy Card seems like a fine fellow -- hardworking, discreet, and fiercely loyal to his boss, President Bush. Even so, Bush replaced him as chief of staff. The Oval Office shuffle encouraged immediate speculation about a possible Card run for governor of Massachusetts in 2006.
Could the man close enough to Bush to tell him ''America is under attack" when the second plane hit the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001, really win political office in the blue state of Massachusetts? Sure, the governor's race looks dreary right now. But is there anything drearier than intimate ties to a president with a 37 percent approval rating?
Like all political speculation, the answer depends upon whom you ask. It also reflects the unsettled nature of the Massachusetts gubernatorial contest.
In a recent Boston Globe poll, Attorney General Thomas Reilly leads newcomer Deval Patrick, 35-22 percent, in the Democratic race for governor. But Patrick has cut into Reilly's early lead and even some Reilly backers believe the AG's polling numbers reflect name recognition, not long-term political strength. Reilly also leads Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, the only Republican in the race, 50 percent to 35 percent. If independent Christy Mihos is presented as a choice, Reilly falls to 40 percent, Healey to 26 percent, and Mihos garners 15 percent. Venture capitalist Chris Gabrieli may yet enter the Democratic primary race, further complicating the politics.
On the Republican side, doubts about Healey are reminiscent of the doubts in 2002 about Acting Governor Jane Swift. In response, Mitt Romney entered the race and Swift dropped out. For now, a Card candidacy is viewed as a hypothetical tweaked by longtime friends Andrew Natsios and Ron Kaufman. Said Charley Manning, a Republican consultant who supports Healey: ''Hmmmm, if I'm Andy Card, I can stay in Washington, be one of the most important people in town, make millions of dollars as a lobbyist and have a great life . . . or I can go back to Massachusetts and run for governor against towering figures like Tom Reilly and Christy Mihos."
A former state representative, Card still owns a home in Holbrook and is registered to vote here. He last pursued elective office in Massachusetts in 1982, when he failed to win the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Since then, his name often comes up when Republicans get desperate for a candidate.
Beyond the world of political insiders, Card is not well known. Irwin ''Tubby" Harrison, a Democratic pollster with an obvious partisan viewpoint, calls him ''a staff guy who made the trains run on time," and a ''male Harriet Miers"-- a reference to the Bush legal counsel whose mediocrity doomed her as a Supreme Court nominee.
Still, David Paleologos, who does polling for the Suffolk University Political Research Center, doesn't dismiss the viability of a Card candidacy. Two years ago, he said he ''threw Card's name" into the mix with Healey -- and among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, the two ended up in a statistical tie. ''He was extremely competitive in a Republican primary," said Paleologos. Given what he sees as Healey's failure so far to define herself, he believes Card is credible and competitive today, although he has no current polling data to support his thesis.
Mihos's participation as a third-party candidate also changes the normal dynamics of a Massachusetts election, Paleologos points out. With votes split between three candidates in the general election, the winner needs 40 percent, not 51 percent.
However, John Gorman of Opinion Dynamics, a national polling outfit, has a gloomier view of Card's prospects as a candidate for governor and it is tied directly to Bush's staggering unpopularity.
Gorman last surveyed Bay State voters at the end of January. Bush's personal favorability rating was already down to 35 percent in the state and, Gorman believes, 'in Massachusetts, it's still going down."
''Andy Card's a nice guy," said Gorman. ''But nobody knows him. He has to raise money the same way everyone else does. He could get the national party behind him, but the more the national party is behind him, the more Bush questions he will get. Every press event would be a nightmare . . . You would want to know about Katrina, Iraq, and Jack Abramoff."
As Gorman sees it, encouraging a Card run for governor ''doesn't strike me as a friendly thing to do. It's like, 'Hey, Andy, the coliseum is empty today and the lions are waiting. Why not jump in?' "
Put that way, it sounds like a perfect time for a decent guy to rent a nice cottage on the Cape and begin those memoirs.
By Joan Vennochi, Globe Columnist | March 30, 2006
Andy Card seems like a fine fellow -- hardworking, discreet, and fiercely loyal to his boss, President Bush. Even so, Bush replaced him as chief of staff. The Oval Office shuffle encouraged immediate speculation about a possible Card run for governor of Massachusetts in 2006.
Could the man close enough to Bush to tell him ''America is under attack" when the second plane hit the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001, really win political office in the blue state of Massachusetts? Sure, the governor's race looks dreary right now. But is there anything drearier than intimate ties to a president with a 37 percent approval rating?
Like all political speculation, the answer depends upon whom you ask. It also reflects the unsettled nature of the Massachusetts gubernatorial contest.
In a recent Boston Globe poll, Attorney General Thomas Reilly leads newcomer Deval Patrick, 35-22 percent, in the Democratic race for governor. But Patrick has cut into Reilly's early lead and even some Reilly backers believe the AG's polling numbers reflect name recognition, not long-term political strength. Reilly also leads Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, the only Republican in the race, 50 percent to 35 percent. If independent Christy Mihos is presented as a choice, Reilly falls to 40 percent, Healey to 26 percent, and Mihos garners 15 percent. Venture capitalist Chris Gabrieli may yet enter the Democratic primary race, further complicating the politics.
On the Republican side, doubts about Healey are reminiscent of the doubts in 2002 about Acting Governor Jane Swift. In response, Mitt Romney entered the race and Swift dropped out. For now, a Card candidacy is viewed as a hypothetical tweaked by longtime friends Andrew Natsios and Ron Kaufman. Said Charley Manning, a Republican consultant who supports Healey: ''Hmmmm, if I'm Andy Card, I can stay in Washington, be one of the most important people in town, make millions of dollars as a lobbyist and have a great life . . . or I can go back to Massachusetts and run for governor against towering figures like Tom Reilly and Christy Mihos."
A former state representative, Card still owns a home in Holbrook and is registered to vote here. He last pursued elective office in Massachusetts in 1982, when he failed to win the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Since then, his name often comes up when Republicans get desperate for a candidate.
Beyond the world of political insiders, Card is not well known. Irwin ''Tubby" Harrison, a Democratic pollster with an obvious partisan viewpoint, calls him ''a staff guy who made the trains run on time," and a ''male Harriet Miers"-- a reference to the Bush legal counsel whose mediocrity doomed her as a Supreme Court nominee.
Still, David Paleologos, who does polling for the Suffolk University Political Research Center, doesn't dismiss the viability of a Card candidacy. Two years ago, he said he ''threw Card's name" into the mix with Healey -- and among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, the two ended up in a statistical tie. ''He was extremely competitive in a Republican primary," said Paleologos. Given what he sees as Healey's failure so far to define herself, he believes Card is credible and competitive today, although he has no current polling data to support his thesis.
Mihos's participation as a third-party candidate also changes the normal dynamics of a Massachusetts election, Paleologos points out. With votes split between three candidates in the general election, the winner needs 40 percent, not 51 percent.
However, John Gorman of Opinion Dynamics, a national polling outfit, has a gloomier view of Card's prospects as a candidate for governor and it is tied directly to Bush's staggering unpopularity.
Gorman last surveyed Bay State voters at the end of January. Bush's personal favorability rating was already down to 35 percent in the state and, Gorman believes, 'in Massachusetts, it's still going down."
''Andy Card's a nice guy," said Gorman. ''But nobody knows him. He has to raise money the same way everyone else does. He could get the national party behind him, but the more the national party is behind him, the more Bush questions he will get. Every press event would be a nightmare . . . You would want to know about Katrina, Iraq, and Jack Abramoff."
As Gorman sees it, encouraging a Card run for governor ''doesn't strike me as a friendly thing to do. It's like, 'Hey, Andy, the coliseum is empty today and the lions are waiting. Why not jump in?' "
Put that way, it sounds like a perfect time for a decent guy to rent a nice cottage on the Cape and begin those memoirs.
