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NH-02: We've Got a Race on Our Hands
Posted by DavidNYC
Ah boy does this feel good. Check out UNH's new Granite State Poll (PDF) (adults, no trendlines):
http://www.swingstateproject.com/elections...lections_house/
Hodes: 35
Bass: 42
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±6.4%)
Those are awesome numbers for Paul Hodes. On the one hand, Charlie Bass is well below 50%. On the other hand, Hodes pulls in 35% of the vote despite being unknown to a whopping 81% of voters. New Hampshire's not a big state, and Hodes has a lot of time to get his name rec up. (Bass has a 49-20 approval rating and is d/k'ed by only 19% of district residents. This is actually one of his weakest showings over the last five years - his favorables have usually been over 50%.)
I'd also like to point out that this poll is something of a rarity - an independent poll of a House race. So none of the usual caveats about internal or partisan polls apply. Yes, the MoE is a bit high, but no, contrary to popular misconception, this does not mean that it's "equally likely" that Bass is actually at 50%.
The bottom line is that we've got a serious race on our hands in this district. If Hodes can raise enough money, and in so doing, raise his profile, then Bass is going to be in deep trouble. If you want to help make that happen, I know that Hodes is having a fundraiser in NYC tonight. I'm not sure if the information is on his website, but you can contact the campaign for more info here.
Oh, and one last thing. RCP declared just yesterday that "no one seriously thinks that Charlie Bass" is in trouble. Well, the good folks at the University of New Hampshire seem to think so - and if Charlie Bass (who was outraised by Hodes last quarter) doesn't think so as well, then he's either in denial or an idiot.
Posted by DavidNYC
Ah boy does this feel good. Check out UNH's new Granite State Poll (PDF) (adults, no trendlines):
http://www.swingstateproject.com/elections...lections_house/
Hodes: 35
Bass: 42
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±6.4%)
Those are awesome numbers for Paul Hodes. On the one hand, Charlie Bass is well below 50%. On the other hand, Hodes pulls in 35% of the vote despite being unknown to a whopping 81% of voters. New Hampshire's not a big state, and Hodes has a lot of time to get his name rec up. (Bass has a 49-20 approval rating and is d/k'ed by only 19% of district residents. This is actually one of his weakest showings over the last five years - his favorables have usually been over 50%.)
I'd also like to point out that this poll is something of a rarity - an independent poll of a House race. So none of the usual caveats about internal or partisan polls apply. Yes, the MoE is a bit high, but no, contrary to popular misconception, this does not mean that it's "equally likely" that Bass is actually at 50%.
The bottom line is that we've got a serious race on our hands in this district. If Hodes can raise enough money, and in so doing, raise his profile, then Bass is going to be in deep trouble. If you want to help make that happen, I know that Hodes is having a fundraiser in NYC tonight. I'm not sure if the information is on his website, but you can contact the campaign for more info here.
Oh, and one last thing. RCP declared just yesterday that "no one seriously thinks that Charlie Bass" is in trouble. Well, the good folks at the University of New Hampshire seem to think so - and if Charlie Bass (who was outraised by Hodes last quarter) doesn't think so as well, then he's either in denial or an idiot.
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The national Democratic Party said yesterday it will target Republican 2nd District Rep. Charles Bass for defeat in November, a move that did not surprise the Bass campaign.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hopes to capitalize on President George W. Bush's lack of support in New Hampshire — particulary the 2nd District — to defeat five-term incumbent Bass, according to committee recruitment chair, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md
.The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hopes to capitalize on President George W. Bush's lack of support in New Hampshire — particulary the 2nd District — to defeat five-term incumbent Bass, according to committee recruitment chair, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md
...
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The race could be on the DCCC's next "red-to-blue" list in late June if Hodes "continues at the pace he is going."
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Good News!!!
