http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/art...m_in/?page=full
QUOTE
A color-coded map of how Mass. voted statewide in three recent governor's races.
The state I'm in
Politically, Massachusetts is really 10 states, not one.
Despite its consistent blue hue on presidential election maps, the political geography of Massachusetts has been remarkably unpredictable during the past few decades. Indeed, the state has often produced a fun-house version of national politics, with liberal Republicans thriving in bohemian towns and conservative Democrats running strongly in family-oriented suburbs.
In the most recent gubernatorial election, in 2002, Mitt Romney embraced the conservative label to a greater degree than his Republican predecessors William Weld and Paul Cellucci, and as a result brought Massachusetts a bit closer to the deep red/blue divisions of national politics: Urban areas became more Democratic while fast-growing exurbs became more Republican. Whether our political geography settles into this more predictable groove, however, is very much an open question.
To demonstrate the shifting priorities and allegiances of Massachusetts voters, CommonWealth magazine divided the state into 10 regions, each representing roughly one-10th of the electorate in the previous gubernatorial election. As the Democrats emerge from their convention this weekend, this map may suggest where they will find surprising pockets of support-and where their influence may be eroding. If the past 25 years are any indication, one of the candidates now vying for the office will need to win at least five of these regions in November to become governor.
A longer version of this article appears in the spring issue of CommonWealth, available online at massinc.org/commonwealth.
BIGGER BOSTON: The GOP in Free Fall
1990 Silber (D): 51% Weld ®: 42%
1998 Harshbarger (D): 57% Cellucci ®: 39%
2002 O'Brien (D): 58% Romney ®: 34%
The Bigger Boston region, encompassing the capital city and the suburbs of Brookline, Everett, Malden, and Medford, is the state's most demographically and socioeconomically diverse. Politically, however, it is solidly Democratic, and only growing more so.
In 2002, Romney got just 34 percent of the vote here (compared with Weld's 42 percent in 1990 and Cellucci's 39 percent in 1998) and lost every one of the communities in this region, as well as all of the wards in Boston.
Still, that lopsided split wasn't good enough for 2002 Democratic nominee Shannon O'Brien. Democrats tend to win statewide when they run strongest in Bigger Boston. But Democrats who run strongest in the more ideological Left Fields region-as O'Brien did in 2002-are in for trouble.
BRINK CITIES: Far from the Golden Dome
1990 Silber (D): 53% Weld ®: 39%
1998 Harshbarger (D): 49% Cellucci ®: 47%
2002 O'Brien (D): 52% Romney ®: 43%
Though it has voted Democratic in every competitive election over the past 30 years, this region-which consists of the economically depressed urban areas around New Bedford and Springfield-is not exactly liberal. Brink Cities was Robert Reich's worst region in the 2002 gubernatorial primary, and it has contributed the most signatures for the gay-marriage ban working its way toward the 2008 ballot. In Democratic primaries, turnout here is not as high as might be expected, given that this is the only region outside of Bigger Boston where registered Democrats outnumber independents.
LEFT FIELDS: The Limits of Liberalism
1990 Silber (D): 43% Weld ®: 47%
1998 Harshbarger (D): 57% Cellucci ®: 40%
2002 O'Brien (D): 59% Romney ®: 33%
The Left Fields region is to Massachusetts what Massachusetts is to the United States-more liberal, more Democratic, better educated, less populated by nuclear families, and more often on the losing side of close elections. It consists of three geographically dispersed regions: Arlington, Cambridge, and Somerville; the islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket along with the Cape Cod communities of Falmouth, Provincetown, Truro, and Wellfleet; and most of the western third of the state, including the college towns of Amherst and Northampton.
In 1994, Romney got just 33 percent of the vote here when he ran against Ted Kennedy for US Senate, and he got the same percentage in the 2002 gubernatorial race, making this the only region in the state where he showed no improvement at all.
In Democratic primaries, the Left Fields region consistently opts for more liberal candidates-it was the best region for Reich in 2002-but the region's lefty leanings aren't always a boon for Democrats. Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate in 2002, won 6 percent of the vote here, which is more than many Democrats hoping to win statewide office can afford to lose.
SHOPPER'S WORLD: Money Isn't Everything
1990 Silber (D): 40% Weld ®: 55%
1998 Harshbarger (D): 51% Cellucci ®: 46%
2002 O'Brien (D): 44% Romney ®: 50%
Shopper's World, named after the suburban mall in Framingham, fans out to the west from Boston along routes 2 and 9, stopping short of I-495. It has the highest median income among our 10 regions, but it voted for "tax-and-spender" Kennedy over Romney 59 percent to 41 percent in the 1994 US Senate race. One explanation is that social issues, such as abortion, often trump economic issues here; this is the region that produced the fewest signatures for the constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, and one that supports left-leaning candidates in Democratic primaries.
But this is not to say that Shopper's World voters can't be made to think about their bank accounts. This is the region where Romney, sounding warnings about the fiscal consequences of total Democratic control on Beacon Hill, made his strongest gains in 2002-winning an even 50 percent, four points above Cellucci's mark in the previous election.
POST-INDUSTRIA: Northern Exposure
1990 Silber (D): 47% Weld ®: 47%
1998 Harshbarger (D): 44% Cellucci ®: 52%
2002 O'Brien (D): 41% Romney ®: 52%
A few decades ago, you'd be hard pressed to come up with two adjacent states more different than "Taxachusetts" and "Live Free or Die" New Hampshire. Since then, however, Massachusetts voters have moved toward New Hampshire's low-tax philosophy. The Post-Industria region-which includes the cities of Lawrence, Lowell, and Lynn along with more conservative bedroom communities such as Billerica and Chelmsford-is where libertarian-leaning New Hampshire seems to have the most influence within the Bay State: Tax-cut referendums generally do very well here, and it was the weakest region for a mandatory seat-belt law when it was put on the ballot in 1994.
The GOP vaulted here from 35 to 47 percent between the 1978 and 1990 gubernatorial elections, and the Democrats have not been able to win it since. In Democratic primaries, Post-Industria leans toward labor-backed candidates (this was Tom Birmingham's best region in the 2002 gubernatorial primary) and against the most socially liberal candidates.
MIDMASS: The Late Shift
1990 Silber (D): 49% Weld ®: 46%
1998 Harshbarger (D): 42% Cellucci ®: 55%
2002 O'Brien (D): 40% Romney ®: 53%
MidMass, the region that includes almost all of Worcester County plus a few adjoining towns, may be the Bay State's equivalent to the American Midwest. An integral part of the state's economy, it has some of the last cities with a substantial manufacturing workforce. But it also now has several fast-growing bedroom communities, as the Boston metropolitan area sprawls farther and farther to the west.
More than any other region, MidMass has trended toward the GOP during the past decade-a shift that had already occurred during the 1980s in similar regions of other states. In 1990, Weld lost the region with 46 percent; in the 1998 race, Cellucci earned a solid 55 percent. In 2002, Romney slipped only a bit, to 53 percent.
In the 2002 Democratic primary, Reich's weak 20 percent showed that there aren't many liberal pockets in MidMass.
PONKAPOAG: The New Southie
1990 Silber (D): 47% Weld ®: 48%
1998 Harshbarger (D): 45% Cellucci ®: 51%
2002 O'Brien (D): 43% Romney ®: 51%
For the southern suburbs, South Boston and Dorchester are the Mother Country. The Ponkapoag region-named for the American Indian tribe once based in present-day Canton-is the most Irish of the 10 regions, and includes the Red Line suburbs of Milton, Quincy, and Braintree, as well as such middle-class towns as Norwood and Stoughton, plus the city of Brockton.
Ponkapoag stays fairly close to the statewide average in general elections, though it's moved a bit toward the GOP: Weld ran 0.8 points behind his statewide percentage here in 1990, but Romney bested his statewide showing by 1.9 points in 2002. In Democratic primaries, Ponkapoag is usually a bit to the right of the state: Like MidMass, it gave only 20 percent of its votes to Reich in 2002. But Deval Patrick, as a Milton resident, may be able to improve on that showing.
STABLES AND SUBDIVISIONS: Down East
1990 Silber (D): 42% Weld ®: 54%
1998 Harshbarger (D): 43% Cellucci ®: 54%
2002 O'Brien (D): 37% Romney ®: 57%
Politically, this region resembles the state of Maine in its affinity for moderate-to-liberal Republicans. Centered on the "other cape," Cape Ann, it includes most of Essex County and the towns of Reading and North Reading and it covers both affluent "horse country" towns such as Hamilton and Topsfield and more affordable suburbs such as Danvers and Peabody. Kerry Healey lives here, in Beverly, and this was her best region in the 2002 Republican primary for lieutenant governor.
Romney won a commanding 57 percent here in 2002. In 2000, the region voted by a 30-point margin to roll back the income tax to 5 percent, and only narrowly rejected a plan to abolish the income tax altogether in 2004.
The Democrats here, though, skew liberal. Reich got 27 percent here in the 2002 Democratic primary, more than in any region outside of Shopper's World and Left Fields.
CRANBERRY COUNTRY: Red Tide
1990 Silber (D): 41% Weld ®: 54%
1998 Harshbarger (D): 40% Cellucci ®: 56%
2002 O'Brien (D): 36% Romney ®: 59%
The cranberry crop in Massachusetts may be shrinking, but this region, which includes most of Plymouth County and Cape Cod, is still as red as it gets in Massachusetts-in terms of party registration, it is the most Republican region (with the GOP share at 18 percent). This is where Romney came closest to beating Kennedy in the 1994 US Senate race, and it was the only region to vote for abolishing the income tax in 2002. But Cranberry Country is similar to its ideological opposite, Left Fields, in that whenever it is the strongest region for a candidate or cause, it usually means that candidate or cause is too extreme to prevail statewide.
A solid majority of Cranberry Country voters (56 percent) are unenrolled in any party (independent gubernatorial candidate Christy Mihos's base is here). In Democratic primaries, the region's voters consistently prefer moderates and conservatives.
OFFRAMPS: Stay to the Right
1990 Silber (D): 40% Weld ®: 55%
1998 Harshbarger (D): 38% Cellucci ®: 59%
2002 O'Brien (D): 34% Romney ®: 60%
If you were to take a map and plot the 50 communities that voted most heavily for Romney in 2002, most of your pushpins would form a large "C" around-and well removed from-the city of Boston. The middle part of that "C" is the Offramps region, which includes three cities and 36 towns clustered around the major commuting artery of I-495. With few urban areas to dilute the GOP vote, this has been the most Republican region in all three of the past competitive gubernatorial elections.
But the direction of Offramps voters may be hard to predict. This is also a high-growth area, and many voters are new to the region and indeed to the state. As the state's most independent region, with 57 percent of voters not enrolled in any party, it is by no means a lock for Republicans.
Statewide tallies in three recent governor's races:
1990
Silber (D): 45%
Weld ®: 48%
1998
Harshbarger (D): 47%
Cellucci ®: 50%
2002
O'Brien (D): 44%
Romney ®: 49%
--------
Robert David Sullivan is an associate editor of CommonWealth, a quarterly journal published by MassINC, a nonpartisan think tank in Boston.
