nebraska.statepaper.com/vnews

Can A Bush Public Appearance Bring Political Pressure On Nelson, Congressmen?
ANALYSIS
By ED HOWARD

May 31, 2006

What will President Bush say when lobbying Senator Ben Nelson for support of the liberalized immigration law the administration wants?

The president will visit Omaha next week, hoping to curry public and political favor for the controversial measure passed by the Senate.

Nelson has supported Bush initiatives more than any Democrat in the Senate. The president has rewarded him with public praise for his bi-partisan efforts, usually while visiting Nebraska to exert pressure on Nelson. However, Nelson has vehemently opposed the relaxed immigration standards sought by Bush.

Another question:

Can Bush even win over Republican Representatives Lee Terry, Jeff Fortenberry and Tom Osborne? Each Nebraskan voted for House-passed legislation aimed mostly at toughening border security with Mexico.

Although the president’s job approval rating is down nationwide – even in rock-ribbed, Republican Nebraska – his generous immigration views will be a hard sell.

There is a sense that the state generally favors tougher immigration policies, regardless of any positive economic impact that immigrant workers have had on some communities. One sign of that possible consensus came in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Incumbent Governor Dave Heineman vetoed a bill granting in-state tuition rates to qualified children of illegal immigrants. Osborne, the iconic former football coach at Nebraska, favored the bill. Heineman won the primary. The bill, and the immigration issue in general, was seen as a major factor.

Politically speaking, why should Terry or Fortenberry support a liberalized immigration law, regardless of what Bush wants? Every indication is that their constituents – Terry’s in the Omaha-dominated 2nd District and Fortenberry’s in the 1st District – don’t want such change. Besides, both are regarded as very solid favorites for re-election. Osborne is retiring after three terms.

Bush wants to allow some of the approximately 12 million Hispanics now in the country illegally to eventually earn citizenship. The Senate bill also provides a guest-worker system, while seeking comparatively modest increases in border security. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska co-authored the measure which passed with tenuous, bi-partisan support in the Senate.

Members of both parties said it might be impossible for the House and Senate to reach a compromise that would win enactment. Bush is traveling the country, hoping to stir support for legislation that would include much of the Senate bill.

Nelson, a former two-term governor who is seeking a second Senate term, has benefited politically from praise previously received from Bush. The president has lauded him as a bi-partisan lawmaker who put the good of the country ahead of partisan politics.

Nelson’s Republican opponent in the general election, businessman Pete Ricketts of Omaha, supports the immigration approach favored by Bush and Hagel.

Why would Nelson worry about that particular difference with Ricketts and the president? It could easily be a plus in November.

Some employers benefit greatly from labor provided by illegal immigrants. However, Nelson has no reason to fear business. His positions on taxes (supporting all the president’s tax cuts) and lowering health insurance costs for small businesses, have made him popular.

It was reported Tuesday that Nelson was just endorsed by three business groups usually thought of as favoring Republicans.

Bush always has enjoyed some of his greatest popularity in Nebraska. Even though his approval rating in the state is at about 50 percent, that is some 20 percentage points higher than his general job rating around the country.

No doubt the president will stir his Omaha audiences to cheers next week, but there is no reason to think it will influence the state’s congressional delegation in any meaningful way.

The White House said Bush had “tentative” plants to visit Omaha. That means that, unless something more important comes up, he will be there. Making his advance schedule public allows a community to prepare for a presidential visit, including Republican apparatchiks who make sure plenty of party supporters turn out for any events.