Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 47% DeWine ® 41%
September 18, 2006

Democrat Sherrod BrownIn Ohio's edge-of-seat Senate race, Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown now claims a six-point lead of 47% to 41% over Republican Senator Mike DeWine (see crosstabs).


The tables have turned slowly but dramatically in this hard-fought campaign. Last November, the incumbent had the edge in the Rasmussen Reports’ first Ohio poll for Election 2006. DeWine sustained a lead through April but Brown has now held a lead for three polls in a row (four of the last five). Last month, like the preceding month, Brown’s lead was statistically insignificant. But this latest poll confirms that the electoral winds have clearly shifted in the Ohio Senate race.


As a result, Rasmussen Reports is shifting Ohio from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power. At the same time, we are shifting Rhode Island and Montana from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat”


Each candidate fares well with his base. But Brown has a big edge now with both unaffiliated voters and moderates.


More voters (20%) view Brown "very favorably" than view DeWine that way (13%).


Brown, characterized as a tax-and-spend liberal by the Republicans, recently unveiled a plan for targeted tax cuts. DeWine has countered by touting his own support for tax cuts and attacking Brown's past votes for tax hikes.


Voters may be seeing DeWine as part and parcel of a GOP establishment they're ready to pink-slip. Republican Governor Bob Taft has been indicted on corruption charges, and his approval rating is still in the dumpster: only 6% strongly approve of his job performance while 53% "strongly disapprove."


The economy is the most important issue to 31% of voters here, a plurality. And 55% of all voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on economic policy.