Here's a question i'd like to ask my fellow New Yorkers we have 9 republicans in the house running for re-election,which district do you think has the best chance to switch from republican to democrat. Here are the races.
NY-03 Peter King ® Vs Dave Mejias (D)
NY-13 Vito Fossella ® Vs Stephen A. Harrison (D)
NY-19 Sue Kelly ® Vs John Hall (D)
NY-20 John Sweeney ® Vs Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
NY-23 John McHugh ® Vs Bob Johnson (D)
NY-24 Raymond A. Meier ® Vs Michael A. Arcuri (D)
NY-25 James Walsh ® Vs Dan Maffei (D)
NY-26 Tom Reynolds ® Vs Jack Davis (D)
NY-29 John "Randy" Kuhl ® Vs Eric Massa (D)
Full Version: US House-9 Seats
NY-26 is now definitely in play. Tom Reynolds had a tough race to begin with, but now he is in deep trouble with everything that came out from the Mark Foley scandal. Latest Survey USA poll out today shows the Democrat Jack Davis leading by 5. Last week before the scandal broke Davis was losing by 2.
Davis gets heavily criticized by some on the left for his views on immigration (very conservative), but he is better than Reynolds and it is a more conservative, rural district. Davis couldn't win a primary in the city against a real liberal dem, but could win the general in this more conservative surburban/rural district.
Anybody in the area interested in helping out the Davis Campaign should drop me a message.
From WGRZ NBC - 2:
Davis gets heavily criticized by some on the left for his views on immigration (very conservative), but he is better than Reynolds and it is a more conservative, rural district. Davis couldn't win a primary in the city against a real liberal dem, but could win the general in this more conservative surburban/rural district.
Anybody in the area interested in helping out the Davis Campaign should drop me a message.
From WGRZ NBC - 2:
QUOTE
Davis Slips Into Lead Over Reynolds
Posted by: Collin Bishop, Special Projects Producer
Created: 10/5/2006 11:21:44 AM
Updated: 10/5/2006 8:17:16 PM
A new scientific telephone survey that was commissioned by 2 On Your Side shows Democratic challenger Jack Davis with a small lead over Republican Congressman Tom Reynolds.
The poll conducted by the company SurveyUSA asked the opinion of 482 likely voters who live in the 26th Congressional District. Respondents were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 50% said Jack Davis, 45% said Tom Reynolds, and 5% were undecided. The poll has a +/- 4.6% margin of error.
View the results.
Compared with a SurveyUSA poll released on 9/28/06, which included Green party candidate Christine Murphy (who was then on the ballot, but who no longer is), Davis has gained 7 points, from 43% to 50%. Reynolds is unchanged at 45%. Davis had trailed by 2, but now leads by 5, a 7-point swing. Murphy, who received 8% in SurveyUSA's poll last week, was disqualified by the New York State Board of Elections on 9/26/06. It is not clear how much of the swing is due to Murphy's removal and how much is due to the involvement of Reynolds in the events surrounding former Representative Mark Foley.
The pollster does say that the results of this poll will be influenced by news revelations over the coming four weeks and should not be considered stable or predictive.
By The Numbers
* 79% of Democrats vote for the Democrat Davis.
* 68% of Republicans vote for the Republican Reynolds.
* 27% of Republicans cross-over to vote for the Democrat.
* Last week, 20% of Idependents voted for the Green candidate. Those votes now go disproportionately to the Democrat.
* The contest is tied among men.
* Davis leads by 9 among women.
* Davis leads among voters age 50+.
* Reynolds leads among voters under age 50.
Posted by: Collin Bishop, Special Projects Producer
Created: 10/5/2006 11:21:44 AM
Updated: 10/5/2006 8:17:16 PM
A new scientific telephone survey that was commissioned by 2 On Your Side shows Democratic challenger Jack Davis with a small lead over Republican Congressman Tom Reynolds.
The poll conducted by the company SurveyUSA asked the opinion of 482 likely voters who live in the 26th Congressional District. Respondents were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 50% said Jack Davis, 45% said Tom Reynolds, and 5% were undecided. The poll has a +/- 4.6% margin of error.
View the results.
Compared with a SurveyUSA poll released on 9/28/06, which included Green party candidate Christine Murphy (who was then on the ballot, but who no longer is), Davis has gained 7 points, from 43% to 50%. Reynolds is unchanged at 45%. Davis had trailed by 2, but now leads by 5, a 7-point swing. Murphy, who received 8% in SurveyUSA's poll last week, was disqualified by the New York State Board of Elections on 9/26/06. It is not clear how much of the swing is due to Murphy's removal and how much is due to the involvement of Reynolds in the events surrounding former Representative Mark Foley.
The pollster does say that the results of this poll will be influenced by news revelations over the coming four weeks and should not be considered stable or predictive.
By The Numbers
* 79% of Democrats vote for the Democrat Davis.
* 68% of Republicans vote for the Republican Reynolds.
* 27% of Republicans cross-over to vote for the Democrat.
* Last week, 20% of Idependents voted for the Green candidate. Those votes now go disproportionately to the Democrat.
* The contest is tied among men.
* Davis leads by 9 among women.
* Davis leads among voters age 50+.
* Reynolds leads among voters under age 50.
QUOTE(ap215 @ Sep 30 2006, 04:33 PM)
NY-19 Sue Kelly ® Vs John Hall (D)
John Hall is a "rock star" who is getting traction.
Remember - - - it's all about celebrity and how good you look on TV
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