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cardinal
LEBANON: HEZBOLLAH ANNOUNCES 'SURPRISE ACTS' AGAINST GOVERNMENT
http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level_English.....363814506&par=

Teheran, 27 Nov. (AKI) - Hezbollah's Number 2 said on Monday that his Shiite movement will engage in "mobilisation and surprise acts" against the Lebanese government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora who he described as "unconstitutional and illegal". "Hezbollah has in store a vast plan against this illegal and Westernised government," Naim Ghasem was quoted as saying by Iranian newsagency Fars.

''After the resignations of six ministers - five Shiites and one Christian - the government headed by Siniora has lost legitimacy," Ghasem said referring to the defection of ministers from the cabinet earlier this month.

He also referred to the government's decision - stongly opposed by Hezbollah - to support an international trial for the suspects in the 2005 murder of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri. Ghasem described the move as "unconstitutional".

Last week Siniora's ailing government suffered another major blow when unknown gunmen shot and killed Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, a leading anti-Syrian politician.
cardinal
Lebanon's cabinet sends Hariri tribunal accord to president for endorsement
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/st...8112c70&k=51600
Hussein Dakroub
Canadian Press

Monday, November 27, 2006

BEIRUT (AP) - The cabinet sent a draft accord Monday to President Emile Lahoud, seeking to create a tribunal to try suspects in the killing of former prime minister Rafik Hariri, further ratcheting up the power struggle between the country's pro-western and pro-Syrian forces.

Lahoud, who is pro-Syrian, is expected to decline to endorse the agreement, which would set up the UN-backed court in a location outside Lebanon.

For opponents of Syria, the court is a major priority, one they hope will uncover the truth behind the February 2005 assassination of Hariri which they accuse Damascus of orchestrating. Syria denies the claim.

Six pro-Syrian cabinet ministers, including all the Shiites, resigned from the cabinet earlier this month shortly before the government gave initial approval to the tribunal.

The move caused Lahoud to say the government should step down because the constitution requires all sects to be represented in the cabinet. But Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, who is backed by the United States and anti-Syrian factions, has refused to resign, saying the cabinet meetings still reached the quorum necessary to make decisions, including the approval of the tribunal.

A spokesman for Lahoud said the accord had arrived at the Presidential Palace. Asked how Lahoud would respond, spokesman Rafik Shalala reiterated the president regards the cabinet as having "lost its constitutional legitimacy after the resignation of the Shiite ministers."

The tribunal has also become the latest weapon in the battle between the Hezbollah-aligned factions and the anti-Syrian parties over the demand by Hezbollah for a third of the cabinet's seats. Securing one third of the seats would give Hezbollah and its supporters veto power over key decisions, including the UN document setting up the tribunal.

Hezbollah is threatening to call mass demonstrations unless it and its allies obtain a veto-wielding share of the cabinet, a demand that Saniora and the anti-Syrian parties have rejected.

On Monday night, several hundred troops and police separated about 700 anti-and pro-Syrian supporters who traded insults and threw glass bottles at each other in Beirut's Christian Ashrafieh neighbourhood. Army commandos and riot police dispersed the crowd two hours later. There was no immediate word on any casualties.

On Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the leader of the Shiite party Amal, Nabih Berri, said they supported the creation of the tribunal, but indicated that their priority was to achieve greater representation in cabinet. They pledged to press their case "by using all available democratic and legal means" - a reiteration of the threat to hold mass protests.

The tribunal accord needs to be approved by the parliament, but the speaker, Berri, supports the view that the cabinet is no longer constitutional.

The crisis threatened to become explosive Nov. 21 when an anti-Syrian cabinet minister, Pierre Gemayel of the Christian Phalange Party, was assassinated in Beirut. The sixth killing of an anti-Syrian figure in the past two years raised fears of the country returning to the sectarian violence of the 1975-90 civil war.

On Monday, the technical team of the UN commission investigating Hariri's assassination examined the scene where Gemayel was shot, the official National News Agency reported.

The chief UN investigator, judge Serge Brammertz of Belgium, inspected the scene over the weekend. The UN has accepted a Lebanese government request to include Gemayel's murder in its investigation.
© The Canadian Press 2006
cardinal
Beware the ides of March
Tuesday, 28 November, 2006 @ 2:23 AM

By Jeha,
Special to Ya Libnan
Whatever “March” you prefer, our Lebanese politics are so “blocked” that only the sword can cut this Gordian knot.

hariri_21.jpgLebanon may be a “message”, but in a region where messages are sent by Katioushas, it could just as well be a battlefield.

So, are we moving towards a civil war in Lebanon? Maybe; it depends on the answer to a series of questions. I will start with the first one:

Are we moving towards a civil war in Lebanon?

The question is not whether the civil war has started; when leaders are killed for political reasons, we have moved beyond civil discourse. The Hariri Assassination was the first shot in a “cloak and dagger” conflict within “Greater Syria”. In this war, Bashar may be swimming against the tide, but “his” Syria will not let go of its prey so easily, and it has powerful local allies.
Syria’s friends, grouped in “March 8th”, have backed “March 14th” into a corner. “March 14th” cannot remain pacific for long, and now has few options but to stick to their bottom line; the tribunal. They are now putting their foot down, “with a little American help”.

berri_licious_11.jpgWith Siniora wearing the unlikely mantle of justicier, without the cape and mask, they are backed by freshly expanded Security Forces and the UNIFIL. But having wasted way too much precious time with Berri’s little show, they now find themselves penalised by their earlier exclusion of Aoun. While it may be true that the “General” is an insufferable egomaniac, it is also a fact that Saad and Joumblat were too arrogant, as demonstrated by their electoral deal with Amal and Hezbollah.

Syria’s opponents, mostly grouped in “March 14th”, have also manoeuvred “March 8th” into a corner. Whatever the true reason for Hezbollah’s actions, Lebanon’s Shiites do not see many options. Outside the Beqaa Valley, few have seen much of Syria’s brutality, and the most glaring demonstration of Western support came to them in the shape of US-supplied Israeli Jets. Many therefore feel that Hezbollah remains their only guarantee for a place at the table. After all, if “March 14th” would turn against Aoun, wouldn’t they “sell them out” as well? Still, “March 8th” gravely misreads Lebanese mood; aside from the people linked to Bank Al-Madina, few will accept so easily a return to the good old days of sisterly love.

This may extent beyond mere misunderstanding, as exemplified by statements from otherwise perceptive people such as Hussein Khalil, the political adviser to Hassan Nasrallah, who considered that “the government coalition was in an unenviable position and was in a very big impasse [and] needed blood to serve for them as kind of oxygen to give them a new life”.

civil_strife_21.jpgMany of “March 8th” supporters point out that “the Hariri assassination has demonstrated plainly that no man can be ‘larger’ than his country”. They fail to realise that no single “community can be ‘greater’ than its country”. In Lebanon, anyone who grows to big for is own boots is pulled back in by the other groups, who will find plenty of allies in doing so. Willing or unwillingly, we are all minorities in this country; whoever tries to impose their will on the others faces war.
With assassinations in Lebanon, and suicides in Syria, we are indeed in the middle of a “cloak and dagger”, stealthy war. A new question arises:

Why hasn’t the “real” shooting started?

Indeed, Lebanese “leaders” have been consistently miscalculating us to death, allowing the late Hafez El-Assad to outsmart all of them one by one. That is, until Hariri came along; like him or not, he became a real threat to their hegemony. But he underestimated the brutality of the Syrian regime, and thus met the fate of all its opponents who were not scared enough to get the heck outta Dodge.

In his absence, it is astonishing that our “leaders” have not started their local version of the “OK Corral”. I think that there are two reasons for this; the Aoun-Geagea duo, and the Syrian factor.

riot_police_11.jpgFirst, enter the Aoun-Geagea duo. Few could ever imagine being grateful for them, since they did much to get Lebanon where it is now. But their current feud effectively sidelines the Christians. Without them at the dance, the party may not start so easily. In this regard, the assassination of Pierre Gemayel would have been the spark to start this war. But they underestimated the statesmanship of the victim’s own father, Amine Gemayel, who stood fast and called for calm and prayer, in spite of his tremendous grief.

Second, Syria’s greed is keeping things quiet, for now. With the new US Congress, our sister is hoping for a return to the buffet, in a “Grand Bargain”. As long as it is hoping to get Lebanon back, it will not break it directly. It may hope to spark civil strife by assassinations, demonstrations, but it will shy away from any larger scale confrontation.

Which bring about the next question; are we going to be sold out to Syria, again? To find the answer to that question, we need to “zoom out” to Syria, and ponder another question:
Is Syrian Independent from Iran?

If the answer is “Yes”, then Syria can still “turn” and choose the “Kaddafi option”. A new window of opportunity has opened up for them, since “American realists are making their comeback ”. In that case, we can “Kiss a liberal Middle East Goodbye” for a long time .

The answer, however, is more likely “No”. Syria may have become an Iranian vassal state with little manoeuvring room. Its cash shortfall is dire, and the country may effectively become a net oil importer by 2010. In addition, our bad Lebanese habits may have infected their system beyond repair; the regime has grown fat on Lebanon’s picking during their occupation, and is now durably addicted to easy money. How much will depend of what the Bank Al-Madina files reveal, if and when they are made public.

The regime tried at first to siphon cash from the beleaguered Syrian economy, but found a more reliable source in Iran’s petrodollars. The downside may be that, with Iran’s cash, came a measure of Iranian control. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mahmoud Vaezi set the tone, when he warned the Syrians that Iran’s’ support depended “on what kind of positions Syria will adopt ”. More tellingly, through their close alliance, the Iranians have infiltrated Syria's “Mokhabarat”, like they did Lebanon.

For those reasons, the second possibility is more likely. But the Syrians are smart enough not to move to a direct confrontation, and would try to initiate another “battle of the marionettes ”. Indeed, the assassination of Pierre Gemayel may have been an attempt at sparking another civil war; with Aoun’s increasingly unpopular alliance with Hezbollah, a violent Christian reaction was all but assured. In a re-enactment of the worst days of the civil war, roads were closed with improvised barricades.

The fires of anger were quickly quenched, but one should not expect Syria and Iran to give up so easily. They will push their cause further, increasingly relying on their local alliances, Lebanon’s internal divisions, and the limitations of many of our politicians. Should they prevail, then the only choice the United States is left with “is capitulation, [is which case] Syria could play a pivotal role”. This brings to mind the final question:

Will the United States be “Defeated” by Iran or Syria?

Khamenei promised as much, when the “Faqih” elected to turn Lebanon into a Battlefield. More importantly for the West, the Iranians have long been making confrontational moves, by threatening to close the Persian Gulf, thereby cutting the world’s jugular vein.

But before you chant the “Vietnam” mantra, recall that there was not much oil in Indochina. The United States may have “lost its way” and Israel may be scared , but it is no South Vietnam . And Iran is no Soviet Union.

Whatever the outcome, we Lebanese will ultimately pay the price if the current equation holds; in the Zero-Sum game of Lebanon’s politics, there will be winners and losers. And reworking the formula of 1943 will only ensure another war, or worse; this Levantine bazaar was ill-adapted back then, and would not work now. We need new thinking, something beyond the skills of our current crop of leaders, top graduates of the warlords’ classes of the civil war. Lebanon cannot continue as a nation with so many of its children among the losers, sitting at the side table, hoping for crumbs.

In short, this will not be an easy ride. I am not too reassured when Michel Aoun promises that “it will all have boiled over by New Year’s”; many Europeans, as young as the students he was talking to, were promised much the same back in 1914.

But the ride may be worth it. I am reassured, however, by Amine Gemayel’s stance; coming from a father who had just lost a son, his call to calm and prayer has gone a long to calm passions, and saved us another war. Whatever their fault, many of March 14th leaders, have apparently learned the lessons of the civil war and the occupation.

Visit Jeha's blog: Jeha's Nail

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2006/11/...re_the_ides.php
cardinal
Khamenei ordered Hezbollah to form an " Islamic Lebanese Republic "

The West calls on Siniora to use the army to thwart the Iranian Plan

Source : (Al SEYASSAH)
London-Hamid of Griavi :

Iranian opposition sources revealed that the Islamic Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave orders to Hezbollah to establish the Islamic Republic in Lebanon , Western diplomatic sources expressed grave concern over the power of Damascus and Tehran, to start a civil war in Lebanon, and called on the government of President Fuad Siniora to alert the army and declare martial law in the country to prevent war ...

The political Iranian opposition living in the UAE capital, said that Khamenei had already given the green light to the leadership of Hezbollah »« to start work for the establishment of a Shiite Islamic republic in Lebanon, in large part at least if unable to control all the country and to be in direct contact with the mother Republic of Iran, and the Shiite Islamic Republic, which has become ready to announce in Iraq.

The Iranian opposition figure said that the countdown for the establishment of this Islamic Republic in Lebanon has started since the first moment of the kidnapping of the Israeli soldiers last July.

He said that there are real fears to the United States, Saudi Arabia, France, Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates from the plans that Iran and Syria have to start a civil , sectarian and ethnic war in Lebanon.

The democratic system in Lebanon should take immediate steps to prevent a Iranian ´ Syrian coup .the US has asked the government of Fouad Siniora to bring the army to all Lebanese regions and the declaration of martial law in the country to prevent the dissemination of chaos and the outbreak of hostilities in order to scale civil war «. the diplomat did not rule out the Gulf »a military coup agreed in advance between the forces of the 14th of March ruling, to confront the Syrian ´ Iranian coup by Hezbollah before it succeed in dismembering the country .

http://tinyurl.com/y9jroo
Indianhead
Too bad we didn't have 70,000 GIs redeployed on their border...
in case their govt. has to take military action against Hezzbolah.
They might invite us in to help (then leave).
real_democrat
And they wonder why they hates us?

"La Guerre Pour Les Autres"
How to Let Lebanon Live

By CHARLES GLASS
http://www.counterpunch.org/glass11242006.html
QUOTE
Ghassan Tueini, who is now eighty years old, finds his name on all the lists circulating in Lebanon of those Syria allegedly wants to eliminate. I asked him why Lebanon couldn't settle down after its long war. "Why do you expect us to be different from other people?" he asked me back. "Remember the trauma of the people of Berlin. Germany did not recover overnight." Germany, like Lebanon, remained occupied for years after the war ended. Lebanon's formal military occupation by Syria in the north and Israel in the south may be over, but neither of the former occupiers will leave it alone. It is time for them to withdraw their interference just as they did their armies. But who will force them?

Lebanon is one piece on a chess board, and its fate cannot be decided in isolation from the rest. Syrian and Israeli policies have more impact than the decisions of Lebanon's elected leaders. Both neighbors--probably the worst any country could ask for--have visions of the Lebanon they want. Syria prefers one where it can choose the president, parliament, prime minister and cabinet. Israel wants to rid Lebanon of what is undoubtedly its most popular political party, Hizballah. It would also like a compliant, pro-American president and government of the kind it tried to implant by force in 1982.

So, what can the United States do? I can tell you what it has done. In 1976, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger approved the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. In 1982, his successor, Al Haig, encouraged Israel's invasion. Then, in 1990, another American secretary of state, James Baker, gave the go-ahead for the Syrian army to return to the parts of Lebanon from which it had been excluded in 1982. Neither Syria nor Israel entered Lebanon without an American okay. An American dictate could keep them both out, if the US cared as much about Lebanon as its politicians claim.

Few people realize tjhat Syria has remained in the US government corner during the Iraq war, why else would all those Gulfstreams carrying prisoners of the US land in Syria for "rendition"?
Abu Beacon
QUOTE(real_democrat @ Dec 2 2006, 09:25 AM)
And they wonder why they hates us?

"La Guerre Pour Les Autres"
How to Let Lebanon Live

By CHARLES GLASS
http://www.counterpunch.org/glass11242006.html

Few people realize tjhat Syria has remained in the US government corner during the Iraq war, why else would all those Gulfstreams carrying prisoners of the US land in Syria for "rendition"?
*


The Lebanon situation is awful. Hizbollah seems determined to have their way at the expense of the welfare of the country. My opinion is that there are two strikes on the country to begin with due to the government being based on sectarian beliefs. When the loyalty of the citizenry is more toward their religion than to the common good of the country, the people will have their loyalties fractured and religious beliefs will trump the common good of the people. I am really concerned that a renewal of the devastating civil war can resume. Hope I'm wrong!

A.B.
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