QUOTE
Posted on Thu, Mar. 22, 2007
Avian flu outbreak would threaten economic vitality of U.S.
By David Goldstein
McClatchy Newspapers
(MCT)
WASHINGTON - In addition to sickening 90 million Americans - 2 million mortally - a pandemic flu outbreak could lay the economy flat as well, a new study says.
The Kansas economy would take a $6 billion hit, Missouri's twice that much.
"Everywhere will be ground zero," said Merideth Parrish, a public health outreach coordinator for the Kansas City Health Department, which is trying to get local businesses to look ahead to the possibilities. "Everybody will be experiencing shortages, absenteeism, supply and demand disruptions universally at one time. The effects will trickle down. I don't think business had a big enough grasp of the severity of the impact."
The Trust for America's Health, a nonprofit health advocacy group, foresees in its report Thursday a nearly $700 billion economic blow if businesses were closed or forced to operate with minimal staff.
The study said the U.S. gross domestic product - valued at $12.4 trillion in 2005 - could drop by 4 percent to 6 percent.
"A pandemic poses a serious threat to our global economy," said Jeffrey Levi, the group's executive director.
Concerns continue to simmer about avian flu, which has resulted in 169 deaths in Asia, Africa and the Middle East and wiped out millions of birds. So far, scientists have not found evidence that the H5N1 virus has mutated to allow human-to-human transmission, although some cases may have occurred.
So far, no avian flu vaccine is widely available.
The study was based on several public and private analyses and used the 1918 influenza outbreak as a model.
The study said the pandemic could extend over 18 months, with several waves lasting from six to eight weeks.
Richard Morrissey of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment said large corporations, such as Sprint Nextel and Raytheon Aircraft, are fairly far along in their preparedness.
"The real difficult impact is on the smallest businesses, where you've got a few employees," he said. "When you have a couple out, how do you continue to operate? We don't have a good answer for those kinds of problems."
The study ranked potential losses to 20 top industries. Hotel and food services would suffer most - $68 million - followed by transportation and warehousing, $61 million.
The Congressional Budget Office said in its own analysis that entertainment and tourism industries could see business plummet by 80 percent over three months in a pandemic. States like California, Hawaii, Florida, and Nevada, could be in for an especially rough ride.
Avian flu outbreak would threaten economic vitality of U.S.
By David Goldstein
McClatchy Newspapers
(MCT)
WASHINGTON - In addition to sickening 90 million Americans - 2 million mortally - a pandemic flu outbreak could lay the economy flat as well, a new study says.
The Kansas economy would take a $6 billion hit, Missouri's twice that much.
"Everywhere will be ground zero," said Merideth Parrish, a public health outreach coordinator for the Kansas City Health Department, which is trying to get local businesses to look ahead to the possibilities. "Everybody will be experiencing shortages, absenteeism, supply and demand disruptions universally at one time. The effects will trickle down. I don't think business had a big enough grasp of the severity of the impact."
The Trust for America's Health, a nonprofit health advocacy group, foresees in its report Thursday a nearly $700 billion economic blow if businesses were closed or forced to operate with minimal staff.
The study said the U.S. gross domestic product - valued at $12.4 trillion in 2005 - could drop by 4 percent to 6 percent.
"A pandemic poses a serious threat to our global economy," said Jeffrey Levi, the group's executive director.
Concerns continue to simmer about avian flu, which has resulted in 169 deaths in Asia, Africa and the Middle East and wiped out millions of birds. So far, scientists have not found evidence that the H5N1 virus has mutated to allow human-to-human transmission, although some cases may have occurred.
So far, no avian flu vaccine is widely available.
The study was based on several public and private analyses and used the 1918 influenza outbreak as a model.
The study said the pandemic could extend over 18 months, with several waves lasting from six to eight weeks.
Richard Morrissey of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment said large corporations, such as Sprint Nextel and Raytheon Aircraft, are fairly far along in their preparedness.
"The real difficult impact is on the smallest businesses, where you've got a few employees," he said. "When you have a couple out, how do you continue to operate? We don't have a good answer for those kinds of problems."
The study ranked potential losses to 20 top industries. Hotel and food services would suffer most - $68 million - followed by transportation and warehousing, $61 million.
The Congressional Budget Office said in its own analysis that entertainment and tourism industries could see business plummet by 80 percent over three months in a pandemic. States like California, Hawaii, Florida, and Nevada, could be in for an especially rough ride.
I guess the rest of the states are going to do so.